A 1000-year history of large floods in the Upper Ganga catchment, central Himalaya, India

Wasson, Robert J.; Sundriyal, Yaspal; Chaudhary, Shipra; Jaiswal, Manoj K.; Morthekai, P.; Sati, S. P.; Juyal, Navin

doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.07.022

Cited by 98 publications

(62 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Results confirm, however, that flood deposits are readily observed in these settings that can considerably broaden the scope for palaeoflood hydrology across the globe. Like previous studies (e.g., Kale et al, 2010;Zhang et al, 2012, Huang et al, 2013Wasson et al, 2013), there now seems to be general consensus that SWD can move beyond the bedrock gorge, where well-preserved flood units are found in flow expansive and backwater settings, serving as a useful addition to sample settings. Importantly, the macrochannel settings of SEQ fulfil the stable boundary conditions required to provide robust discharge estimates because they have experienced minimal channel adjustments over the past 200 years (Fryirs et al, 2015;Thompson et al, 2016) and even over the longer timescale of the Holocene (Croke et al, 2016a(Croke et al, , 2016bDaley et al, 2016).…”

Section: Recognised Challenges In the Application Of Swd To Flood Estmentioning

confidence: 55%

Beyond the gorge: Palaeoflood reconstruction from slackwater deposits in a range of physiographic settings in subtropical Australia

et al. 2017

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The application of palaeoflood hydrology in Australia has been limited since its initial introduction more than 30 years ago. This study adopts a regional, field-based approach to sampling slackwater deposits in a subtropical setting in southeast Queensland beyond the traditional arid setting. We explore the potential and challenges of using sites outside the traditional physiographical setting of bedrock gorges. Over 30 flood units were identified across different physiographical settings using a range of criteria. Evidence of charcoal-rich layers and palaeosol development assisted in the identification and separation of distinct flood units. The OSL-dated flood units are relatively young with two-thirds of the samples being <1000 years old. The elevation of all flood units have resulted in estimated minimum discharges greater than the 1% annual exceedance probability. Although these are in the same order of gauged flood magnitudes, >80% of them classified as 'extreme event'. This study opens up the renewed possibility of applying palaeoflood hydrology to more populated parts of Australia where the need for improved estimation of flood frequency and magnitude is now urgent in light of several extreme flood events. Preliminary contributions to improve the understanding between high magnitude floods and regional climatic drivers are also discussed. Recognised regional extreme floods generally coincide with La Niña and negative IPO phases, while tropical cyclones appear to be a key weather system in generating such large floods.

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Section: Recognised Challenges In the Application Of Swd To Flood Estmentioning

confidence: 55%

Beyond the gorge: Palaeoflood reconstruction from slackwater deposits in a range of physiographic settings in subtropical Australia

et al. 2017

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“…That stationarity has always been (or is mostly) dead is clear from many analyses of palaeoflood and historical flood records (e.g. Wasson et al, 2013).…”

Section: Flood Forecasting: Methods and Problemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty, ambiguity and adaptive flood forecasting

Wasson

2016

Policy and Society

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Reliable long-term flood forecasts are needed because floods, among environmental disasters worldwide, do most damage to lives and property, a problem that is likely to increase as climate changes. The objective of this paper is to critically examine scientific approaches to flood forecasting under deep uncertainty and ambiguity as input to flood policy, and to explore alternative approaches to the development of better forecasts along with the necessary organizational support. This therefore a paper on science policy Aleatory (i.e. frequentist) probability estimates have dominated the science, attached to which are irreducible uncertainties. The lower priority given to finding a physical theory of floods means that ambiguity is high, particularly in relation to choosing a probability density function for forecasting. The historical development of flood forecasting is analyzed within the UncertaintyAmbiguity Matrix of Schrader, S. Riggs, W.M., and Smith, R.P. (1993). Choice over uncertainty and ambiguity in technical problem solving. Journal of Engineering and Technology Management, 10, 13-99 showing that considerable uncertainty and ambiguity exist and are likely to continue. The way forward appears to be a mix of: broadening the information input to forecasts by engaging many disciplines, Bayesian analyses of probabilities, scenario analyses of catastrophic floods based on all available evidence, and adaptive forecasting in the face of climate change.

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“…Even in the peninsular India, where dams have created low flow regime in downstream reaches, enhanced siltation has increased the flood hazard in the downstream reaches (Ghosh and Guchhait, 2014). Additionally, the damming of rivers by landslides and glacier deposits in the Himalayan terrain creates potential conditions for outburst flooding (Wasson et al, 2013a). Recently, significant progress has been made towards understanding of processes and impacts of these flood hazards, which have been discussed in the following sections.…”

Section: Flood Hazard and River Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The occurrence of various flood deposits in the Higher Himalaya suggests that it was not an isolated event, but such major floods have also occurred in the past. Wasson et al (2013a) analysed 1000 years history of large floods in the Alaknanda and Bhagirathi river valley (Fig. 1B) using the sedimentary archive, and suggested that high magnitude impacts in the last 1000 years are characterized by temporally variable frequency, which follows the monsoonal variability.…”

Section: Flood Hazard and River Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

River Systems in India: The Anthropocene Context

Jain¹,

Sinha²,

Singh³

et al. 2016

Proceedings of the Indian National Science Academy

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The Anthropocene represents the time since human impacts have become one of the major external forcings on natural processes. The present review provides a synthesis of studies on the Indian rivers at modern time scale. These studies highlight the significant impact of anthropogenic forcing on modern day river processes and behaviour. Various aspects of river systems at modern time scale and their possible future trajectories have been analysed. The integration of data from modern rivers and their archives are critical for defining sustainable stream management practices. Our synthesis suggests that the multi-disciplinary river studies at modern and historical time scales need to be pursued vigorously for securing the health and futures of the Indian rivers.

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A 1000-year history of large floods in the Upper Ganga catchment, central Himalaya, India

Cited by 98 publications

References 39 publications

Beyond the gorge: Palaeoflood reconstruction from slackwater deposits in a range of physiographic settings in subtropical Australia

Beyond the gorge: Palaeoflood reconstruction from slackwater deposits in a range of physiographic settings in subtropical Australia

Uncertainty, ambiguity and adaptive flood forecasting

River Systems in India: The Anthropocene Context

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