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Badeck, Franz-W.; Lischke, Heike; Bugmann, Harald; Hickler, Thomas; Hönninger, Karl; Lasch, Petra; Lexer, Manfred J.; Mouillot, Florent; Schaber, Jörg; Smith, Benjamin

doi:10.1023/a:1012577612155

Cited by 69 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…On the other extreme, process‐based dynamic vegetation models can extrapolate potential community states outside the data domain by assuming that the same processes act universally, but are often hard to fit to data as they require a multitude of parameters to be calibrated (Hartig et al, 2012 ; Korzukhin et al, 1996 ). Several modeling attempts have been undertaken to extrapolate the equilibrium forest vegetation with relatively complex process models that concentrate on larger trees, but neither explicitly consider the role of the sapling stage nor quantify the role of sapling demography (e.g., Badeck et al, 2001 ; Bugmann & Solomon, 2000 ; Prentice et al, 1993 ). However, the critical role of recruitment processes in determining forest composition has recently led to calls for explicit modeling of these processes (Hanbury‐Brown et al, 2022 ; König et al, 2022 ; Kunstler et al, 2009 ; Price et al, 2001 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Which demographic processes control competitive equilibria? Bayesian calibration of a size‐structured forest population model

Heiland

Künstler

Šebeň

et al. 2023

Ecology and Evolution

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In forest communities, light competition is a key process for community assembly. Species' differences in seedling and sapling tolerance to shade cast by overstory trees is thought to determine species composition at late-successional stages. Most forests are distant from these late-successional equilibria, impeding a formal evaluation of their potential species composition. To extrapolate competitive equilibria from shortterm data, we therefore introduce the JAB model, a parsimonious dynamic model with interacting size-structured populations, which focuses on sapling demography including the tolerance to overstory competition. We apply the JAB model to a two-"species" system from temperate European forests, that is, the shade-tolerant species Fagus sylvatica L. and the group of all other competing species. Using Bayesian calibration with prior information from external Slovakian national forest inventory (NFI) data, we fit the JAB model to short time series from the German NFI. We use the posterior estimates of demographic rates to extrapolate that F. sylvatica will be the predominant species in 94% of the competitive equilibria, despite only predominating in 24% of the initial states. We further simulate counterfactual equilibria with parameters switched between species to assess the role of different demographic processes for competitive equilibria. These simulations confirm the hypothesis that the higher shade tolerance of F. sylvatica saplings is key for its long-term predominance. Our results highlight the importance of demographic differences in early life stages for tree species assembly in forest communities.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Which demographic processes control competitive equilibria? Bayesian calibration of a size‐structured forest population model

Heiland

Künstler

Šebeň

et al. 2023

Ecology and Evolution

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“…This issue was raised by [26] who highlighted the need for using extensive data sets for evaluating the performance of gap models to avoid bias toward some species or ages. The factors that must be considered in the comparison of the predictions of gap models with observed stand data can be classified in three groups [29]: (1) degree to which the environmental site variables used in the simulations are accurate and representative of the field conditions; (2) extent to which observed data, which may originate from inventory surveys, represent the forests under examination; and (3) extent to which potential successional changes and management activities are taken into account. As previously mentioned, ZELIG-CFS is a semi-mechanistic model that includes basic environmental site variables for the simulations, including monthly mean temperatures and precipitations and basic soil texture, in the initialization files.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Nevertheless, these patterns do not indicate that ZELIG-CFS consistently failed to realistically predict regeneration establishment. Large differences between observations and predictions do not necessarily indicate that a model does not adequately represent mechanisms or failed to make realistic predictions [29]. A good example of this statement is the modelling of regeneration [37].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Relatively little effort has been devoted to testing the performance of gap models using long-term historical forest records, despite the fact that this issue has been raised several times in recent years [25][26][27][28]. Comparing model predictions against long-term observations is essential to build confidence in models and guide silvicultural operations when improved knowledge of changes in species composition is needed to maintain biodiversity or evaluate the potential effects of global change [6,25,[27][28][29].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluating the Performance of a Forest Succession Model to Predict the Long-Term Dynamics of Tree Species in Mixed Boreal Forests Using Historical Data in Northern Ontario, Canada

Larocque

Bell

2021

Forests

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Environmental concerns and economic pressures on forest ecosystems have led to the development of sustainable forest management practices. As a consequence, forest managers must evaluate the long-term effects of their management decisions on potential forest successional pathways. As changes in forest ecosystems occur very slowly, simulation models are logical and efficient tools to predict the patterns of forest growth and succession. However, as models are an imperfect representation of reality, it is desirable to evaluate them with historical long-term forest data. Using remeasured tree and stand data from three data sets from two ecoregions in northern Ontario, the succession gap model ZELIG-CFS was evaluated for mixed boreal forests composed of black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.] B.S.P.), balsam fir (Abies balsamea [L.] Mill.), jack pine (Pinus banksiana L.), white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss), trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.), white birch (Betula papyrifera Marsh.), northern white cedar (Thuja occidentalis L.), American larch (Larix laricina [Du Roi] K. Koch), and balsam poplar (Populus balsamefera L.). The comparison of observed and predicted basal areas and stand densities indicated that ZELIG-CFS predicted the dynamics of most species consistently for periods varying between 5 and 57 simulation years. The patterns of forest succession observed in this study support gap phase dynamics at the plot scale and shade-tolerance complementarity hypotheses at the regional scale.

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“…To maintain the interannual variation in daily temperature and precipitation we added these anomalies to a randomized sample of the observed years , from the two stations Pilatus and Einsiedeln). Disturbances were modelled as random events, with an expected return interval of 100 years which had produced good results in earlier studies for plant functional types composition for temperate and boreal forests in Europe (Badeck et al 2001;Smith et al 2001) and North America (Hickler et al 2004). Patches were treated as being independent.…”

Section: Estimating Regional Carbon Storage Capacitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying disturbance effects on vegetation carbon pools in mountain forests based on historical data

Gimmi

Wolf²,

Bürgi

et al. 2008

Reg Environ Change

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Although the terrestrial carbon budget is of key importance for atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, little is known on the effects of management and natural disturbances on historical carbon stocks at the regional scale. We reconstruct the dynamics of vegetation carbon stocks and flows in forests across the past 100 years for a valley in the eastern Swiss Prealps using quantitative and qualitative information from forest management plans. The excellent quality of the historical information makes it possible to link dynamics in growing stocks with high-resolution time series for natural and anthropogenic disturbances. The results of the historical reconstruction are compared with modelled potential natural vegetation. Forest carbon stock at the beginning of the twentieth century was substantially reduced compared to natural conditions as a result of large scale clearcutting lasting until the late nineteenth century. Recovery of the forests from this unsustainable exploitation and systematic forest management were the main drivers of a strong carbon accumulation during almost the entire twentieth century. In the 1990s two major storm events and subsequent bark beetle infestations significantly reduced stocks back to the levels of the mid-twentieth century. The future potential for further carbon accumulation was found to be strongly limited, as the potential for further forest expansion in this valley is low and forest properties seem to approach equilibrium with the natural disturbance regime. We conclude that consistent long-term observations of carbon stocks and their changes provide rich information on the historical range of variability of forest ecosystems. Such historical information improves our ability to assess future changes in carbon stocks. Further, the information is vital for better parameterization and initialization of dynamic regional scale vegetation models and it provides important background for appropriate management decisions. Keywords Forest carbon stock Á Terrestrial carbon sinks Á Windthrow Á Bark beetle Á Forest management Á Historical ecology

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Untitled

Cited by 69 publications

References 48 publications

Which demographic processes control competitive equilibria? Bayesian calibration of a size‐structured forest population model

Which demographic processes control competitive equilibria? Bayesian calibration of a size‐structured forest population model

Evaluating the Performance of a Forest Succession Model to Predict the Long-Term Dynamics of Tree Species in Mixed Boreal Forests Using Historical Data in Northern Ontario, Canada

Quantifying disturbance effects on vegetation carbon pools in mountain forests based on historical data

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