Untitled

Abstract

The paper is aimed at studying climatic trends in variability of the average annual and average monthly fields of significant wave heights of the mixed and wind seas, swell and the wind speeds in the Black Sea region. Methods and Results. Based on the MIKE 21 SW numerical model, the significant wave heights' fields of the mixed and wind seas, and also swell were obtained for the period from 1979 to 2018. Long-term wind velocity changes were analyzed using the ERA-Interim reanalysis data for the same period. Linear climatic trends in the average annual and average monthly variability of the significant wave heights and the average wind speeds were evaluated by the statistical methods. Conclusions. The main feature of climatic variability of the significant wave height fields in the Black Sea is the pronounced spatial heterogeneity. In the western part of the sea, decrease in storm activity is observed. The eastern part is characterized by increase of the average significant wave heights. Statistically significant positive trends in fluctuations of the significant wave heights are observed in the coastal area from the Crimea southeast coast to the Georgia coast. Over the past 40 years, swell waves have intensified near the Turkish coast (to the east of Sinop) and near the Kerch Strait. The largest increase of the average monthly heights of mixed waves is observed in the eastern part of the sea in March and amounts 0.5-0.6 cm/year. This corresponds to increase of the average wind speeds by ~0.025 m/s/year. In November, decrease of storm activity is observed in the western part of the sea that is expressed in diminution of the monthly average values of the significant wave heights by 0.8 cm/year. Decrease of the average annual wave heights by ~0.08 cm/year is observed in the southwestern part of the Black Sea. On the contrary, the whole eastern part of the sea is subject to the increased storm activity accompanied by growth of the average annual wave heights in the fields of the mixed and wind seas by 0.10-0.15 cm/year. The above-mentioned features reflect climatic variability of the average wind speeds, which are characterized by wind weakening in the western part of the sea (0.010-0.015 m/s/year) and its amplification in the sea eastern part (0.015-0.020 m/s/year).