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Kömüşçü, Ali Ümran; Erkan, Ayhan; Oz, S.

doi:10.1023/a:1005349408201

Cited by 40 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Under RCP 8.5 scenario, the change in stream flow indicates insignificant increase in dry seasons but it is decreasing in the pre summer (rainy season), shown in Figure 16. The change in stream flow under all scenarios shows significant increase in summer and post summer (October and November) seasons, but in dry season due to the increase in temperature evapotranspiration will be increased [30], and consequently the catchment may be exposed to seasonal moisture deficit [31]. Moreover the average stream flow change in RCP 8.5 scenario is indicating 4.06%, 3.26%, and 3.67% in 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively.…”

Section: Evaluating Impact Of Climate Change On Stream Flowmentioning

confidence: 89%

Change in Stream Flow of Gumara Watershed, upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia under Representative Concentration Pathway Climate Change Scenarios

Chakilu

Szegedi

Túri

2020

Water

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Climate change plays a pivotal role in the hydrological dynamics of tributaries in the upper Blue Nile basin. The understanding of the change in climate and its impact on water resource is of paramount importance to sustainable water resources management. This study was designed to reveal the extent to which the climate is being changed and its impacts on stream flow of the Gumara watershed under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenarios. The study considered the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios using the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used for calibration and projection of future climatic data of the study area. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used for simulation of the future stream flow of the watershed. Results showed that the average temperature will be increasing by 0.84 °C, 2.6 °C, and 4.1 °C in the end of this century under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The change in monthly rainfall amount showed a fluctuating trend in all scenarios but the overall annual rainfall amount is projected to increase by 8.6%, 5.2%, and 7.3% in RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5, respectively. The change in stream flow of Gumara watershed under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios showed increasing trend in monthly average values in some months and years, but a decreasing trend was also observed in some years of the studied period. Overall, this study revealed that, due to climate change, the stream flow of the watershed is found to be increasing by 4.06%, 3.26%, and 3.67%under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively.

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Section: Evaluating Impact Of Climate Change On Stream Flowmentioning

confidence: 89%

Change in Stream Flow of Gumara Watershed, upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia under Representative Concentration Pathway Climate Change Scenarios

Chakilu

Szegedi

Túri

2020

Water

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“…Durdu (2010) also analyses historical climate data and reports that changes in precipitation and temperature over the last 60 years have been significant and can be attributed to climate change effects. Komuscu, Erkan, and Oz (1998) suggest that soil water deficit is likely to increase by 4-43% for a 2°C warming and by 8-91% for a 4°C warming by using the Thornthwaite water-balance model. Göncü (2005) relates this to the increasing evapotranspiration under climate change by using a hydrological simulation model.…”

Section: Effects On Technical Conditions Of Agricultural Productionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and agriculture: an integrated approach to evaluate economy-wide effects for Turkey

Dudu

Cakmak

2017

Climate and Development

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This paper quantifies the economic effects of climate change on Turkey. We use an integrated framework that combines an economy-wide model with a crop water requirement model to analyse the probable effects of the B1 scenario of the intergovernmental panel on climate change which is comparable to representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario. Results suggest that the economic effects of climate change will not have serious economic effects over the period up to late 2030s, but the negative effects dominate the economy in the second half of this century. This provides Turkey an excellent opportunity to increase resilience and implement appropriate adaptation policies. The impact of climate change varies across regions. Agriculture and food production will be heavily affected. Especially irrigated production will decline as water stress increases. Significant decline in agricultural production is transmitted throughout the economy and reduces national welfare. Part of agriculture's decline is compensated by imports, thus deteriorating Turkey's food trade balance.

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“…Based on SPI indices, the MGM informs government agencies when precipitation is low, water deficits are detected, and there is a risk of drought. 51 When water shortages occur, Regional Directorates of DSI implement the General Irrigation Plans (see Section 3.4. In addition, Provincial governments also alert WUO and other stakeholders to drought formation so that contingency plans can be made, for example to alter cropping patterns and irrigation practices.…”

Section: Disaster Response and Crisis Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus insurance indemnities are typically an effective coping tool, and agricultural insurance programmes in Turkey are improving and more widely available. TARSIM's claim and 51 The risk of drought corresponds to SPI index values below -0.51.…”

Section: Recovery and Reconstructionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Building the resilience of Turkey’s agricultural sector to droughts

Bagherzadeh¹,

Shigemitsu²

2021

OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers

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Turkey is exposed to multiple natural hazard-induced disasters (NHID) and has considerable experience in managing the associated risks. Drought, in particular, has had significant impacts on the country's agricultural sector, and the frequency of droughts is expected to increase due to climate change. Existing governance and policy frameworks seek to ensure that the agricultural sector is prepared for, and able to respond to, adverse events as they occur. While these mechanisms contribute to improved resilience, further opportunities exist to strengthen policy processes, in particular by increasing farmer and private sector participation.

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Untitled

Cited by 40 publications

References 10 publications

Change in Stream Flow of Gumara Watershed, upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia under Representative Concentration Pathway Climate Change Scenarios

Change in Stream Flow of Gumara Watershed, upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia under Representative Concentration Pathway Climate Change Scenarios

Climate change and agriculture: an integrated approach to evaluate economy-wide effects for Turkey

Building the resilience of Turkey’s agricultural sector to droughts

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