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Ogurtsov, M. G.; Nagovitsyn, Yu. A.; Kocharov, G. E.; Jungner, H.

doi:10.1023/a:1022411209257

Cited by 205 publications

(59 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…The occurrence of two IMFs associated with the Gleissberg cycle suggests that it could be made by multiple branches at different scales of variability. This is in agreement with Ogurtsov et al (2002), who suggested that this solar cycle oscillation has a double structure consisting of two distinct scales around 50−80 and 90−140 yr. We note that approaches suggesting that the Gleissberg cycle could be made by a single oscillation of varying period in time (e.g., Kolláth & Oláh 2009), mainly based on Fourier and wavelet-based analysis, could be biased by the combination of non-adaptive techniques, poor frequency sample, and shortness of the observed sunspot datasets providing solutions in which the oscillating modes are mixed together, while actually distinct oscillations are present. Indeed, the use of fixed basis functions, which in a nonstationary case are far from being eigenfunctions of the phenomenon at hand, with short (with respect to the oscillation wavelength) datasets can provide a solution where modes are mixed together in such a way that the solution is compatible with the fictitious conditions imposed by the analysis.…”

Section: Results For Wsn and Gsnsupporting

confidence: 93%

“…A deeper characterization of the Gleissberg and Suess cycles is possible owing to the long duration of SNR datasets with respect to WSN/GSN ones. Our findings indicate that the Gleissberg cycle, often identified with a single oscillation of varying period in time, and the Suess cycle are actually composed of a multibranch structure at distinct scales of oscillations (Ogurtsov et al 2002;Usoskin 2013). We verified that the Gleissberg and Suess cycles, containing most of the signal energy, are strongly involved in the grand minima generation.…”

Section: Gleissberg and Suess Cyclessupporting

confidence: 65%

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Connection between solar activity cycles and grand minima generation

Vecchio

Lepreti

Laurenza

et al. 2017

A&A

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Aims. The revised dataset of sunspot and group numbers (released by WDC-SILSO) and the sunspot number reconstruction based on dendrochronologically dated radiocarbon concentrations have been analyzed to provide a deeper characterization of the solar activity main periodicities and to investigate the role of the Gleissberg and Suess cycles in the grand minima occurrence. Methods. Empirical mode decomposition (EMD) has been used to isolate the time behavior of the different solar activity periodicities. A general consistency among the results from all the analyzed datasets verifies the reliability of the EMD approach.Results. The analysis on the revised sunspot data indicates that the highest energy content is associated with the Schwabe cycle. In correspondence with the grand minima (Maunder and Dalton), the frequency of this cycle changes to longer timescales of ∼14 yr. The Gleissberg and Suess cycles, with timescales of 60−120 yr and ∼200−300 yr, respectively, represent the most energetic contribution to sunspot number reconstruction records and are both found to be characterized by multiple scales of oscillation. The grand minima generation and the origin of the two expected distinct types of grand minima, Maunder and longer Spörer-like, are naturally explained through the EMD approach. We found that the grand minima sequence is produced by the coupling between Gleissberg and Suess cycles, the latter being responsible for the most intense and longest Spörer-like minima (with typical duration longer than 80 yr). Finally, we identified a non-solar component, characterized by a very long scale oscillation of ∼7000 yr, and the Hallstatt cycle (∼2000 yr), likely due to the solar activity. Conclusions. These results provide new observational constraints on the properties of the solar cycle periodicities, the grand minima generation, and thus the long-term behavior of the solar dynamo.

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Section: Results For Wsn and Gsnsupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Gleissberg and Suess Cyclessupporting

confidence: 65%

Connection between solar activity cycles and grand minima generation

Vecchio

Lepreti

Laurenza

et al. 2017

A&A

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“…However, the Gleissberg cycle is not a cycle in the strict periodic sense but rather a modulation of the cycle envelope with a varying timescale of 60-120 years (e.g., Gleissberg 1971;Kuklin 1976;Ogurtsov et al 2002).…”

Section: Centennial Gleissberg Cyclementioning

confidence: 99%

“…A simple period- Sunspot activity (decadal data) throughout the Holocene, reconstructed from 14 C by Usoskin et al (2016a). Blue circles and red stars denote grand minima and maxima, respectively icity analysis yields several peaks in the range of periods between 80 and 150 years (cf., Peristykh and Damon 2003), corresponding to the frequency band of the Gleissberg cycle (Ogurtsov et al 2002). The de Vries/Suess cycle, with a period of about 210 years, forms a prominent in the power spectrum, but it is intermittent and tends to become strong with around 2400 clustering time .…”

Section: Quasi-periodicities and Characteristic Timesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A history of solar activity over millennia

Usoskin

2017

Living Rev Sol Phys

359

241

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Presented here is a review of present knowledge of the long-term behavior of solar activity on a multi-millennial timescale, as reconstructed using the indirect proxy method. The concept of solar activity is discussed along with an overview of the special indices used to quantify different aspects of variable solar activity, with special emphasis upon sunspot number. Over long timescales, quantitative information about past solar activity can only be obtained using a method based upon indirect proxies, such as the cosmogenic isotopes 14 C and 10 Be in natural stratified archives (e.g., tree rings or ice cores). We give an historical overview of the development of the proxy-based method for past solar-activity reconstruction over millennia, as well as a description of the modern state. Special attention is paid to the verification and cross-calibration of reconstructions. It is argued that this method of cosmogenic isotopes makes a solid basis for studies of solar variability in the past on a long timescale (centuries to millennia) during the Holocene. A separate section is devoted to reconstructions of strong solar energetic-particle (SEP) events in the past, that suggest that the present-day average SEP flux is broadly consistent with estimates on longer timescales, and that the occurrence of extra-strong events is unlikely. Finally, the main features of the long-term evolution of solar magnetic activity, including the

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“…It has been successfully applied in analysis of solar and geophysical data (e.g., Ogurtsov et al 2002;Sello 2003a). This approach is very appropriate to search for multiscale nonlinear variability behavior.…”

Section: Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Term Solar Variability and the Solar Cycle in the 21st Century

Bonev

Penev

Sello

2004

ApJ

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We have examined the long-term trends in the solar variability that can be deduced from some indirect data and from optical records. We analyzed the radiocarbon measurements for the last 4500 years, based on dendrochronology, the Schove series for the last 1700 years, based on auroral records, and the Hoyt-Schatten series of group sunspot numbers. Focusing on periodicities near one and two centuries, which most likely have a solar origin, we conclude that the present epoch is at the onset of an upcoming local minimum in the long-term solar variability. There are some clues that the next minimum will be less deep than the Maunder minimum, but ultimately the relative depth between these two minima will be indicative of the amplitude change of the quasitwo-century solar cycle.

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Cited by 205 publications

References 23 publications

Connection between solar activity cycles and grand minima generation

Connection between solar activity cycles and grand minima generation

A history of solar activity over millennia

Long-Term Solar Variability and the Solar Cycle in the 21st Century

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