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Abstract

Malaria is a major public health problem for countries in the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC). While the endemicity of malaria varies enormously across this region, many of the countries have districts that are prone to periodic epidemics, which can be regional in their extent, and to resurgent outbreaks that are much more localized. These epidemics are frequently triggered by climate anomalies and often follow periods of drought. Many parts of Southern Africa have suffered rainfall deficit over the past three years and countries expect to see increased levels of malaria when the rains return to more 'normal' levels. Problems with drug and insecticide resistance are documented widely and the region contains countries with the highest rates of HIV prevalence to be found anywhere in the world. Consequently, many communities are vulnerable to severe disease outcomes should epidemics occur.The SADC countries have adopted the Abuja targets for Roll Back Malaria in Africa, which include improved epidemic detection and response, i.e., that 60% of epidemics will be detected within two weeks of onset, and 60% of epidemics will be responded to within two weeks of detection. The SADC countries recognize that to achieve these targets they need improved information on where and when to look for epidemics. The WHO integrated framework for improved early warning and early detection of malaria epidemics has been recognized as a potentially useful tool for epidemic preparedness and response planning. Following evidence of successful adoption and implementation of this approach in Botswana, the SADC countries, the WHO Southern Africa Inter-Country Programme on Malaria Control, and the SADC Drought Monitoring Centre decided to organize a regional meeting where countries could gather to assess their current control status and community vulnerability, consider changes in epidemic risk, and develop a detailed plan of action for the forthcoming [2004][2005] season. The following is a report on the 1 st Southern African Regional Epidemic Outlook Forum, which was held in Harare, Zimbabwe, 26 th

Potential Predictability of Malaria in Africa Using ECMWF Monthly and Seasonal Climate Forecasts

“…To a large extent, health decisions concerning drug distribution and interventions are still based on long-term-mean malaria-prevalence maps (Omumbo et al 2013). The possible reasons for this state of affairs are many and include the fact that health ministries often follow the strategy of increasing the efficiency of disease-monitoring systems so as to improve the reaction time to the onset of epidemics (DaSilva et al 2004;Checchi et al 2006). The operational paradigm of using climate or other information sources to predict outbreaks in advance is often unfamiliar.…”

Application and Validation of a Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System Using a Dynamic Malaria Model

“…Seasonal multimodel ensemble forecasts from AOGCMs have been shown to be capable of predicting the ENSO signal as skillfully as dedicated ENSO models and much better than atmospheric general circulation models driven by persisted SSTs (Palmer et al 2004). Seasonal forecasts have been used by the health community in southern Africa for a number of years (DaSilva et al 2004), and more recently a malaria early warning system (MEWS), developed by the Roll Back Malaria partnership has been prototyped in southern Africa and tested extensively in Botswana . This system includes, along with vulnerability assessment, environmental monitoring and case surveillance, and the use of tailored seasonal climate forecasts to plan, prepare, and respond to epidemics.…”

Changes in the burden of malaria following scale up of malaria control interventions in Mutasa District, Zimbabwe

“…While these interventions contributed to the decline in malaria burden in many countries, the impact has not been universal, both within and between countries [1,2]. Within southern Africa, wide heterogeneity exists in the burden of malaria following the scale up of malaria control measures.…”