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Анисимов, О. А.; Nelson, Frederick E.

doi:10.1023/a:1005315409698

Cited by 101 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…Permafrost thawing has been reported in many parts of the circumpolar area as a consequence of warmer ground temperatures [95]. Permafrost and its dynamics are major drivers of hydrological and geomorphological processes [96]. The northern parts and mountain regions of Fennoscandia belong mainly to the zone of discontinuous permafrost.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Term Climate Trends and Extreme Events in Northern Fennoscandia (1914–2013)

Kivinen

Rasmus

Jylhä

et al. 2017

Climate

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Abstract:We studied climate trends and the occurrence of rare and extreme temperature and precipitation events in northern Fennoscandia in 1914Fennoscandia in -2013. Weather data were derived from nine observation stations located in Finland, Norway, Sweden and Russia. The results showed that spring and autumn temperatures and to a lesser extent summer temperatures increased significantly in the study region, the observed changes being the greatest for daily minimum temperatures. The number of frost days declined both in spring and autumn. Rarely cold winter, spring, summer and autumn seasons had a low occurrence and rarely warm spring and autumn seasons a high occurrence during the last 20-year interval (1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013), compared to the other 20-year intervals. That period was also characterized by a low number of days with extremely low temperature in all seasons (4%-9% of all extremely cold days) and a high number of April and October days with extremely high temperature (36%-42% of all extremely warm days). A tendency of exceptionally high daily precipitation sums to grow even higher towards the end of the study period was also observed. To summarize, the results indicate a shortening of the cold season in northern Fennoscandia. Furthermore, the results suggest significant declines in extremely cold climate events in all seasons and increases in extremely warm climate events particularly in spring and autumn seasons.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Term Climate Trends and Extreme Events in Northern Fennoscandia (1914–2013)

Kivinen

Rasmus

Jylhä

et al. 2017

Climate

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“…Avoiding the traditional and simple approach via "degreedays" based on near-surface temperatures (Anisimov and Nelson, 1997;Stendel and Christensen, 2002), we have decided to run a sophisticated permafrost model with boundary conditions taken from a regional climate model providing higher resolution than what can be offered by a GCM. This approach, discussed in detail in Stendel et al (2007), offers the advantage that the permafrost model can be run on the grid of the regional climate model, i.e.…”

Section: Modelling Framework and Climatic Forcingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Permafrost degradation risk zone assessment using simulation models

et al. 2011

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Abstract. In this proof-of-concept study we focus on linking large scale climate and permafrost simulations to small scale engineering projects by bridging the gap between climate and permafrost sciences on the one hand and on the other technical recommendation for adaptation of planned infrastructures to climate change in a region generally underlain by permafrost. We present the current and future state of permafrost in Greenland as modelled numerically with the GIPL model driven by HIRHAM climate projections up to 2080. We develop a concept called Permafrost Thaw Potential (PTP), defined as the potential active layer increase due to climate warming and surface alterations. PTP is then used in a simple risk assessment procedure useful for engineering applications. The modelling shows that climate warming will result in continuing wide-spread permafrost warming and degradation in Greenland, in agreement with present observations. We provide examples of application of the risk zone assessment approach for the two towns of Sisimiut and Ilulissat, both classified with high PTP.

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“…[3] The implications of permafrost degradation in response to climate warming have drawn considerable attention in recent decades. Some studies associated with permafrost monitoring and simulation as well as projection of permafrost degradation have been reported [e.g., Anisimov and Nelson, 1997;Stendel and Christensen, 2002;Nelson, 2003;Frauenfeld et al, 2004;Lawrence and Slater, 2005;Delisle, 2007;Oelke and Zhang, 2007;Zhang et al, 2007Zhang et al, , 2008Wu andZhang, 2008, 2010;Yang et al, 2010]. International projects to explore the nature of permafrost were also conducted.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A projection of permafrost degradation on the Tibetan Plateau during the 21st century

2012

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[1] The current distribution and future change of permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau were examined using the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) with explicit treatment of frozen soil processes. When forced off-line with archived high-resolution data from The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 3 nested within the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate 3.2 HiRes, the CLM4 produced a near-surface permafrost area of 122.2 Â 10 4 km 2 for the Tibetan Plateau. This area compares reasonably with area estimates of 126.7 Â 10 4 km 2 for the Plateau frozen soil map. In response to the simulated strong Plateau warming (approximately 0.58°C per decade over the Tibetan Plateau for the period from 1980 to 2100 under the A1B greenhouse gas emissions scenario), the near-surface permafrost area is projected to decrease by approximately 39% by the mid-21st century and by approximately 81% by the end of the 21st century. The near-surface permafrost area exhibits a significant decreasing linear trend, with a rate of decrease of 9.9 Â 10 4 km 2 per decade. The simulated deep permafrost area remains longer than the near-surface permafrost for the same period. The active layer thickness of 0.5-1.5 m found in the present-day increases to approximately 1.5-2.0 m by the period of 2030-2050. This increase will continue and reach a level of 2.0-3.5 m by the period of 2080-2100. Surface runoff decreases but subsurface runoff increases, both relative to the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration. This is related to the fact that the decrease in ground ice content, as caused by permafrost degradation, facilitates the percolation of more water to deeper soil layers, thus resulting in the reallocation of runoff. These results provide useful references for evaluating the level of permafrost degradation in response to climate warming on the Tibetan Plateau.Citation: Guo, D., H. Wang, and D. Li (2012), A projection of permafrost degradation on the Tibetan Plateau during the 21st century,

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Cited by 101 publications

References 51 publications

Long-Term Climate Trends and Extreme Events in Northern Fennoscandia (1914–2013)

Long-Term Climate Trends and Extreme Events in Northern Fennoscandia (1914–2013)

Permafrost degradation risk zone assessment using simulation models

A projection of permafrost degradation on the Tibetan Plateau during the 21st century

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