872. PROPHETIC: Predicting Pneumonia in Hospitalized Patients in the ICU—A Model and Scoring System

Abstract

BackgroundProspectively identifying patients at highest risk for hospital-acquired and ventilator-associated bacterial pneumonia (HABP/VABP) by implementing a risk assessment scoring tool may help focus prevention efforts, optimize the screening process to improve clinical trial feasibility, and enhance development of new antibacterial agents.MethodsWithin the intensive care units (ICU) of 28 US hospitals, between February 6, 2016 and October 7, 2016, patients hospitalized >48 hours and receiving high levels of respiratory support were prospectively followed for meeting the definition of HABP/VABP recommended in US FDA draft guidance. Patient demographics, medical comorbidities, and treatment exposures were recorded. The association between candidate risk factors and odds of developing HABP/VABP was evaluated with a multivariable logistic regression model. Risk factors were selected using backward selection with α = 0.1 for model inclusion. A web-based scoring system was developed to estimate the risk of HABP/VABP from the risk factors identified.ResultsA total of 5,101 patients were enrolled, of whom 1,005 (20%) developed HABP/VABp. 4,613 patients were included in the model, excluding 488 (10%) with HABP/VABP at or before enrollment. There are 15 variables included in the model. APACHE II admission score >20 (P < 0.001, OR 2.14, 95% CI 2.00–2.29), admission diagnosis of trauma (P < 0.001, OR 3.31, 95% CI 1.90–5.74), frequent oral or lower respiratory tract suctioning (P < 0.001, OR 2.33, 95% CI 1.81–2.99), and receipt of enteral nutrition (P < 0.001, OR 2.31, 95% CI 1.69–3.16) were the key drivers of increased pneumonia risk. The model demonstrated excellent discrimination (bias-corrected C-statistic 0.861, 95% CI 0.843–0.880). The web-based scoring system can be accessed via this link: https://ctti-habpvabp.shinyapps.io/web_based_tool/.ConclusionUsing a web-based scoring system, ICU patients at highest risk for developing HABP/VABP can be accurately identified. Prospective implementation of this tool may assist in focusing additional prevention efforts on the highest risk patients and enhance new drug development for HABP/VABP.Disclosures S. P. Bergin, CTTI: Investigator and Scientific Advisor, Research support and Travel to study related meetings. A. Coles, CTTI: Investigator and Scientific Advisor, Salary. S. B. Calvert, CTTI: Employee, Salary. M. J. Zervos, CTTI: Investigator, Research support. A. C. Bardossy, CTTI: Investigator, Research support. M. Kollef, CTTI: Investigator, Research support. M. J. Durkin, CTTI: Investigator, Research support. M. Sims, CTTI: Investigator, Research support. C. Greenshields, CTTI: Investigator, Research support. B. A. Kabchi, CTTI: Investigator, Research support. H. K. Donnelly, CTTI: Collaborator and Scientific Advisor, Research support and Salary. P. Tenaerts, CTTI: Employee, Salary. P. Gu, CTTI: Collaborator, Research support and Salary. V. G. Fowler Jr., CTTI: Investigator and Scientific Advisor, Research support and Salary. Merck: Consultant, Grant Investigator...

Classical and Molecular Techniques to Diagnose HAP/VAP

“…The nosocomial pneumonias, which include hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP), ventilated HAP (vHAP), and ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP), account for approximately a quarter of all health care-associated infections (HAIs) and are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among hospitalized patients. 1 2 3 4 HAP is defined as a new pneumonia, not incubating at the time of admission, that is diagnosed 48 hours or more after hospital admission. vHAP is defined as an episode of HAP resulting in subsequent need for mechanical ventilation.…”