800 Years of Agricultural Land-use Change in Asian (Eastern) Russia

Prishchepov, Alexander V.; Schierhorn, Florian; Dronin, N.; Ponkina, Elena; Müller, Daniel

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-15927-6_6

Cited by 12 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Agricultural lands will be jeopardized and policies have to focus on limiting these expected land-use changes ( Prishchepov et al., 2020 ). The concentration on ecological and agricultural protection policies should be given a priority in the city to limit the spatial changes leading to urban sprawl.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The concentration on ecological and agricultural protection policies should be given a priority in the city to limit the spatial changes leading to urban sprawl. The unplanned loss of agricultural and fertile lands will cause soil degradation as experienced in many parts of the world ( El-Seedy and Saeed, 2019 ; Prishchepov et al., 2020 ). Food security is a major issue in the city of Irbid since these agricultural lands are the wheat fields that feed the nation ( Gharaibeh et al., 2020 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This issue is also linked to distance to commercial land-use since this type of land-use is habitually located on the main road network ( Simwanda et al., 2020 ; Zhang et al., 2019 ). With loose urban policies, this may lead to creating linearly expanding and connected cities and towns ( Prishchepov et al., 2020 ). This is also jeopardizing the landscape character especially traveling from one place to another ( Gharaibeh et al., 2017 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Land fertility (soil fertility) is always attractive for more agricultural expansions. However, many countries are facing soil fertility degradation which impacts land-use change ( El-Seedy and Saeed, 2019 ; Prishchepov et al., 2020 ). However, with the absence of firm urban and environmental policies, such valuable lands may be lost to urban changes ( Prishchepov et al., 2020 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is a driver of investment. With the absence of strict policies, lands turn quickly to urban uses along the main roads creating linear towns and cities and linking urban areas ( Prishchepov et al., 2020 ). This factor is negatively impacting landscape character as well ( Gharaibeh et al., 2017 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Improving land-use change modeling by integrating ANN with Cellular Automata-Markov Chain model

Gharaibeh

Shaamala

Obeidat

et al. 2020

Heliyon

149

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Urban growth and land-use change are a few of many puzzling factors affecting our future cities. Creating a precise simulation for future land change is a challenging process that requires temporal and spatial modeling. Many recent studies developed and trained models to predict urban expansion patterns using Artificial Intelligence (AI). This study aims to enhance the simulation capability of Cellular Automata Markov Chain (CA-MC) model in predicting changes in land-use. This study integrates the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) into CA-MC to incorporate several driving forces that highly impact land-use change. The research utilizes different socio-economic, spatial, and environmental variables (slope, distance to road, distance to urban centers, distance to commercial, density, elevation, and land fertility) to generate potential transition maps using ANN Data-driven model. The generated maps are fed to CA-MC as additional inputs. We calibrated the original CA-MC and our models for 2015 cross-comparing simulated maps and actual maps obtained for Irbid city, Jordan in 2015. Validation of our model was assessed and compared to the CA-MC model using Kappa indices including the agreement in terms of quantity and location. The results elucidated that our model with an accuracy of 90.04% substantially outperforms CA-MC (86.29%) model. The improvement we obtained from integrating ANN with CA-MC suggested that the influence imposed by the driving force was necessary to be taken into account for more accurate prediction. In addition to the improved model prediction, the predicted maps of Irbid for the years 2021 and 2027 will guide local authorities in the development of management strategies that balance urban expansion and protect agricultural regions. This will play a vital role in sustaining Jordan's food security.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Improving land-use change modeling by integrating ANN with Cellular Automata-Markov Chain model

Gharaibeh

Shaamala

Obeidat

et al. 2020

Heliyon

149

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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Multiple trajectories of grassland fragmentation, degradation, and recovery in Russia's steppes

et al. 2021

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Over the 20th century, the Eurasian steppes underwent drastic land-cover changes.Much progress was made studying cropland expansion and the post-1990 (i.e., post-Soviet) agricultural land abandonment in Eurasia. However, the alteration of steppe landscapes may include other disturbances, such as oil and gas development, formal and informal roads and garbage dumps, which were not systematically documented.Considering the example of the steppe Orenburg Province in Russia, we reconstructed agricultural land-cover change dynamics using Landsat and Sentinel-2 imagery from 1990 to 2018. Furthermore, we used very high-resolution imagery and assessed the patterns and determinants of other steppe landscape anthropogenic disturbances. Our study showed that, despite steppe recovery due to widespread cropland abandonment from 1990 to 2018, the steppes, including the recovered steppe patches, underwent fragmentation due to informal roads, oil and gas development, shrub encroachment, garbage dumps and quarries, as well as abandonment of settlements and buildings. Only 6.4% of the sampled 7859 1Â1 km blocks in 2018 showing grassland extent had no documented disturbances. The mapped disturbances occurred primarily near settlements and roads, while some disturbances occurred in remote areas. Given the accessibility of steppes, our study calls for a urgent need to systematically document alternatives to agricultural land uses in the steppes of Eurasia and other parts of the global grassland biome.

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