8 Issue Voting

Abstract

The main research question in this chapter is to what extent and how voters’ perceptions of important issues affect the outcome of the election. The analyses clearly demonstrate that issue voting matters. If a voter thinks that a certain issue is salient, this has a considerable positive effect on the probability that he or she will vote for the party that is regarded as the ‘owner’ of the issue. Despite thelimitations of the measurements and data used, it is argued that issues do matter in modern elections. However, contrary to expectations based on modernisation theory, no secular increase in issue voting over time was found. The notion that policy preferences — or issues — have “replaced” social background as prime determinants of voting tends to overlook the fact that even the traditional models of voting behaviour were not devoid of political context. In this perspective, the analysis in this chapter confirms that election campaigns are still fought over issues that both politicians and voters perceive as important. If a party owns an issue, it has far better chances in an upcoming election, only if the voters — and the media — agree with the party that this particular issue deserves particular attention.

Do voters punish the government for welfare state retrenchment? A comparative study of electoral costs associated with social policy

“…I would argue that the theoretical and empirical evidence is strong enough to allow for a generalization to a larger period of time. Research shows that the salience of social policy has been high but not overwhelmingly in the 1980s and 1990s and accordingly comparable to what has been found for the sample of this study (Rattinger, 1990;Ku¨chler, 1991Ku¨chler, , 1994Roller, 1998;Aardal and Wijnen, 2005). This gives raise for the expectation that social policy performance effects have been comparable to what is found in the context of this study.…”

“…A look in the literature makes clear that issues taking this form are seen as rather influential as it has been shown that performance effects are usually stronger than position effects and retrospective evaluations have more weight than prospective ones (see, for example, Wattenberg, 1995;Kra¨mer and Rattinger, 1997;Nagler, 1998, 1995;Clarke et al, 2004;Veiga and Veiga, 2004;Aardal and Wijnen, 2005;Listhaug, 2005;Whiteley et al, 2005, but see also MacKuen et al, 1992;MacKuen et al, 1996;Norpoth, 1996). Political psychology literature teaches us further that only highly salient attitudes have an effect on behavior (see, for example, Fazio, 1986Fazio, , 1989Aldrich et al, 1989), therefore we expect the issue of social policy to be influential particularly for people rating the topic highly important.…”

“…In general, the model builds on the major variables discussed in the literature (see, for example, Campbell et al, 1960;Aardal and Wijnen, 2005): party identification, issues and candidate evaluation. Although we still see some minor differences between the classic traditions of electoral theory, this basic model is no longer contested.…”

‘Do the Vote Test’: The Electoral Effects of a Popular Vote Advice Application at the 2004 Belgian Elections

“…class voting), because they like an individual candidate, to punish elite parties, etc. Some say issue voting is increasing as a motivator of electoral choice, and others doubt that this is the case (Aardal and Van Wijnen, 2005). Either way, a key aspect of issue voting is information: people need to be informed about what positions parties have adopted regarding the issues they care about.…”

Social democracy after the Third Way: restoration or renewal?

“…For instance, social policy and labour market issues are among the top three most salient issues in European elections, and especially in Scandinavia (Aardal and van Wijnen 2005;Oscarsson and Holmberg 2008: 54). In Denmark, 'welfare' has been the single most salient issue in every election since 1994 (Stubager et al 2013: 26).…”