7.5.3 Cultural Models of Organizational Risk in Product Development

Abstract

Abstract. This paper uses cognitive domain elicitation methods to explore taxonomies of risk in engineering product development. The paper places typical technologies of risk control within a context of theories that emphasize system-focused risk identification. Two case studies identify weaknesses in this approach: operator errors in a chemical plant, and pilot error classification on P-3 aircraft. Shifting the emphasis to user-focused rather than system-focused risk identification reveals several key concepts that are missing from the formal theories of risk mitigation. Using numerical analysis from a survey at a small engineering company, the paper explores cognitive anthropology insights regarding the distinction between folk and scientific taxonomies. The results present four significant findings: People who think they disagree with each other don't; experts and non-experts view risky things differently; despite this difference, non-experts have a systematic understanding of risky things; and there are verifiable ways to elicit the structure of this understanding.