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Zelenhasić, Emir

doi:10.1023/a:1016108532059

Cited by 17 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 2 publications

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“…The authors believe that using the SPI together with Markov modelling may improve the interpretation of trends in drought evolution and that more developments are foreseen in the direction of how to combine stochastic approaches with the analyses of weather regimes. This paper presents the main results of the application of the Zelenhasic-Todorovic (ZT) method (Todorovi c, 1970;Todorovi c and Zelenhasi c, 1970;Zelenhasi c, 1970a;1970b;2002;Todorovi c and Woolhiser, 1972;Fabian and Zelenhasic, 2016;Srđevi c et al, 2018) in analysing extremely long meteorological droughts which may have significant negative consequences to the agricultural and related sectors in Pannonian Basin. A contextual description of the ZT method is given in detail by Srdjevic et al (2020).…”

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confidence: 99%

Extreme rainless periods in Pannonian Basin

Srdjević

Benka

2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This paper analyses extreme meteorological droughts in the territory of the Pannonian Basin in central and southeastern Europe. Droughts are treated from an agricultural perspective as periods of consecutive days with very little or no rainfall at all. By using data from the historical period 1981-2010, time intervals longer than 20 days with less than 3 mm per day during the growing season April-September are examined to determine theoretical and empirical distributions of their number and durations. Related discrete stochastic process of extremes is analysed by the Zelenhasic-Todorovic (ZT) method, successfully applied in hydrology and meteorology (e.g., peak flows, low flows, meteorological droughts, etc.). The method is applied to 52 locations across Pannonia Basin. At each location, the Poisson distribution is determined for the number of droughts, exponential distribution for the duration of droughts, and double exponential distribution for the duration of the (annually) longest droughts. To validate the quality of modelling and the results obtained, standard statistical goodness of fit tests are used. Historical data from the period 1981-2010 indicate that the central and northern part of Hungary and the entire territory of Vojvodina Province in the north of Serbia experienced the longest droughts, on average 55-60 days. In statistical terms, across Pannonia Basin once in 100 years drought may occur with an average duration of 56 days. Theoretically longest 100-year droughts could be expected in the northern part of Hungary (up to 70 days), the eastern part of Romania (up to 68 days), and Serbia (up to 69 days). The 2-year droughts are on the average duration of 3 weeks. Generated maps of the longest droughts in the basin may help to reduce agricultural risks due to global warming and other negative impacts of climate change.

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confidence: 99%

Extreme rainless periods in Pannonian Basin

Srdjević

Benka

2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Characteristics in streamflow and extremes in the Tarim River, China: trends, distribution and climate linkage

Chen

2014

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Using long-term daily streamflow records from the headwaters of the Tarim River Basin in northwestern China, the mean seasonal streamflow and extremes (1-day maximum and minimum flows) are analysed. The aim is to assess possible changes in trends, return periods and teleconnections to selected climate indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the multivariate El Nino-Southern Oscillation index (MEI), the Tibetan Plateau High (XZH), the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex area (VPA), the Asian zonal index (AZI) and the Siberian High intensity index (SHI). The Mann-Kendall test is used to investigate instances where significant positive trends are observed in all hydrological indices, especially in winter. From 1990 onwards, a significant wavelet power spectrum of annual and seasonal flow was observed at 1-5 year periods in the Aksu River. Correlation analysis and wavelet coherence analysis were employed between selected climate indices with respect to seasonal streamflow means and extremes. Maximum changes in correlation strengths were observed in hydrological indices with VPA. The winter AO and NAO also showed significant influence on streamflow means and extremes. In addition, step change analysis was carried out using the Cumulative Sum Control Chart (CUSUM) test, the results suggesting that step change points were observed towards the end of the 1980s and in the early 1990s. The teleconnection between climate indices and streamflow and extremes can be utilized in a model to predict the probability of hydrological indices in the Tarim River.

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