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doi:10.29338/wp2021-12a

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…6 If this nonlinearity is ignored, as is common when forecasting the conditional mean alone, we show that one would mistakenly conclude that households' expectations are less informative than those of professionals. This explains why previous research that focuses on point forecasts (that is, conditional mean estimates), such as Carroll (2003), Ang et al (2007), Trehan (2015), Meyer et al (2021), and Verbrugge and Zaman (2021), has found that households forecast less well than professional forecasters. Our results show that while this is true when forecasting the center of the inflation density, it does not hold in the tails.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The distributional predictive content of measures of inflation expectations

Mitchell,

Zaman

2023

Working Paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)

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This paper examines the predictive relationship between the distribution of realized inflation in the US and measures of inflation expectations from households, firms, financial markets, and professional forecasters. To allow for nonlinearities in the predictive relationship we use quantile regression methods. We find that the ability of households to predict future inflation, relative to that of professionals, firms, and the market, increases with inflation. While professional forecasters are more accurate in the middle of the inflation density, households’ expectations are more useful in the upper tail. The predictive ability of measures of inflation expectations is greatest when combined. We show that it is helpful to let the combination weights on different agents’ expectations of inflation vary by quantile when assessing inflationary pressures probabilistically.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The distributional predictive content of measures of inflation expectations

Mitchell,

Zaman

2023

Working Paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)

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“…El hecho de que en el tema de valor de dinero en el tiempo y la definición de inflación en la región se encuentre por arriba del promedio del G20 puede deberse a que la encuesta se realizó en un momento de alta inflación en el mundo y en la región (mayo de 2023). Es un hecho empírico que los hogares y empresas prestan más atención a la inflación en periodos de alta inflación (Bracha y Tang, 2022, Pfäuti, 2021, y Meyer y Sheng, 2022.…”

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Hacia una mayor inclusión financiera para el desarrollo: informe económico sobre Centroamérica, México, Panamá y República Dominicana

López,

Ruiz-Arranz

2024

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Se estima que la región de Centroamérica, Panamá y República Dominicana (CAPARD) tendrá en 2024 un crecimiento menor al promedio histórico y sus condiciones financieras serán más astringentes. En este contexto, la inclusión financiera ejerce un papel crucial en la moderación de las fluctuaciones del consumo y en el fomento de la inversión. En este informe, se analiza la situación del crédito y la inclusión financiera en CAPARD y, sobre la base del análisis de los determinantes de la inclusión financiera, se proponen políticas para acelerar su profundización, con énfasis en las Estrategias Nacionales de Inclusión Financiera, la educación financiera, las tasas de interés y el ambiente competitivo, y la inclusión financiera digital. Finalmente, se describe la participación del Grupo BID para promover la inclusión financiera en la región a través de una selección de sus operaciones.

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Estimates of cost-price passthrough from business survey data

Dogra

Heise

Knotek

et al. 2023

Working Paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)

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We examine businesses' price-setting practices via open-ended interviews and in a quantitative survey module with business contacts from the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Cleveland, and New York in December 2022 and January 2023. Businesses indicated that their prices were strongly influenced by demand, a desire to maintain steady profit margins, and wages and labor costs. Survey respondents expected reduced growth in costs and prices of about 5 percent on average over the next year. Backward-looking, forward-looking, and hypothetical scenarios reveal average cost-price passthrough of around 60 percent, with meaningful heterogeneity across firms.

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Cited by 3 publications

References 36 publications

The distributional predictive content of measures of inflation expectations

The distributional predictive content of measures of inflation expectations

Hacia una mayor inclusión financiera para el desarrollo: informe económico sobre Centroamérica, México, Panamá y República Dominicana

Estimates of cost-price passthrough from business survey data

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