For automated fiber placement onto molds with complex surfaces, uneven compaction pressure distribution limits tows number in a single sequence and affects layup quality. Compaction roller has a direct influence on the pressure distribution, but the relationship between the two has not been widely explored. In this paper, the segmented compaction roller is used, and a theoretical model of compaction pressure distribution for layup onto general surfaces is established by analyzing the contact between the roller and prepreg layers, followed by experimental validation. Based on the model, single-point pressure uniformity and whole-path pressure uniformity are proposed to quantitatively evaluate the pressure distribution. Furthermore, pressure distribution and pressure uniformity of segmented roller and common roller are compared, as well as the influence of the two pressure distribution on layup quality. The results show that the established model can predict pressure distribution and provide a basis for analyzing layup defects, and segmented rollers apply evener compaction pressure and help to improve layup quality.