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Zong, Yongqiang; Chen, Xiqing

doi:10.1023/a:1008119805106

Cited by 250 publications

(84 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…The region that contributed greatly to the development of flooding in the Yangtze River (Hu et al 2007). The spatial distribution of the high return periods of AM10 is also consistent with the exceptional high water levels in the middle Yangtze River (Zong and Chen 2000). The maximum water levels in 1998 at Shashi, Chenglingji and Hukou hydrological stations, all located at the middle Yangtze River, exceeded the historical maximum (Zong and Chen 2000).…”

Section: The 1998 Extreme Precipitation From Probabilistic Perspectivesupporting

confidence: 68%

“…These extreme precipitation events were associated with the East Asian summer monsoon, the west Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) ridge, and the Mei-Yu fronts over East Asia (Wang et al 2003;Zhan et al 2004). In the following, the return periods of the 1998 extreme precipitation in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin, where the severe floods occurred (Zong and Chen 2000), are estimated. Among the 107 stations in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin, more than 22.4% of the sta- tions have the return period of the 1998 extreme precipitation longer than 10 years (Table 4).…”

Section: The 1998 Extreme Precipitation From Probabilistic Perspectivementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The 1998 floods in the Yangtze River and northeastern China drove 14 million people from their homes, affected a total of 240 million people, destroyed 5 million houses, damaged 12 million houses, and destroyed 25 million hectares of farmland (NCDC 1998). More than 3,000 people lost their lives in the 1998 floods, and the estimated total economic losses were over $36 billion (NCC 1998;Zong and Chen 2000).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The fast growing population, and industrialization in major river basins in China in the recent decades appear to have elevated the damage potentials of extreme precipitation, as well as other natural disasters (Zong and Chen 2000). It is thus of great importance to analyze the variation of extreme precipitation in China.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Modeling Annual Extreme Precipitation in China Using the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution

Feng

Nadarajah

2007

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

101

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Extreme precipitation events are the major causes of severe floods in China. In this study, four time series of daily, 2-day, 5-day, and 10-day annual maximum precipitation from 1951 to 2000 at 651 weather stations in China were analyzed. The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was used, to model the annual extreme precipitation events at each station. The GEV distribution was also modified to explore the linear temporal trends in the extreme events. The results showed that more than 12% of the stations have significant ( p-value < 0:10) linear trends. Decreasing trends are mainly observed in northern China, and increasing trends are observed in the Yangtze River basin and northwestern China. The return periods of extreme precipitation have changed for stations with significant temporal trends. The 50-year event observed in parts of the Yangtze River basin, and northwestern China during 1951-60, has become a more frequent 25-year event in the 1990s. The spatial distribution of the return levels of the 651 stations are closely related to the climatic mean precipitation, and are influenced by the East Asian summer monsoon system (return levels are measures of extremity-for example, a 10 year return level is the value that can be expected to be exceeded on average once in every 10 years). The return period of extreme precipitation, that caused the 1998 severe floods in the Yangtze River basin, was also evaluated from a probabilistic perspective.

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Section: The 1998 Extreme Precipitation From Probabilistic Perspectivesupporting

confidence: 68%

Section: The 1998 Extreme Precipitation From Probabilistic Perspectivementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Modeling Annual Extreme Precipitation in China Using the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution

Feng

Nadarajah

2007

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

101

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“…Other rapid onset hazards that have occurred within the studied deltas are the 1953 storm surge which impacted the Rhine-Meuse-Scheldt and killed 1835 people (Gerritsen, 2005) and the floods of 1998 in the Yangtze which caused mass disruption to the agricultural land use and thus severe economic damage (Zong and Chen, 2000). Typhoon Linda caused significant damage to the Mekong delta in 1997, leading to the destruction of 300,000 houses as well as other losses (Nguyen, 2007).…”

Section: Hazardsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolving deltas: Coevolution with engineered interventions

Welch

Nicholls

Lázár

2017

Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene

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Deltaic environments are often densely populated with high socio-economic values, and thus are hotspots of climatic, environmental and anthropogenic change. Large scale engineered structures, such as dike systems, have played an important role in shaping both environmental and socio-economic conditions in deltas, with such interventions more likely where there is a high population and a wealthy economy. Engineered interventions interact with the morphological evolution of the delta, reducing or removing sedimentation and accelerating subsidence, increasing the consequences of flooding and necessitating further adaptation. They also encourage further development, reinforcing this feedback. Thus, in these cases, the deltaic landscape and associated livelihoods can be considered to be the result of a coevolution process between natural delta processes and human engineered interventions. This paper explores this hypothesis. It analyses the history of large scale engineering interventions and their implications in five representative, large, populated deltas across the globe (Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna, Yangtze, Rhine-Meuse-Scheldt, Mekong and Nile). The results demonstrate coevolution has occurred and indicate that the response type and the management approach of these engineered structures have significant implications for future delta development. To understand and manage unintended consequences and the development of lock-in trajectories in deltas, a systematic understanding of delta development, including these coevolution processes is essential.

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A hierarchicalBayesian regional model for nonstationary precipitation extremes inNorthernCalifornia conditioned on tropical moisture exports

Steinschneider

Lall

2015

Water Resources Research

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Warm, moist, and longitudinally confined tropical air masses are being linked to some of the most extreme precipitation and flooding events in the midlatitudes. The interannual frequency and intensity of such atmospheric rivers (ARs), or tropical moisture exports (TMEs), are connected to the risk of extreme precipitation events in areas where moisture convergence occurs. This study presents a nonstationary, regional frequency analysis of precipitation extremes in Northern California that is conditioned on the interannual variability of TMEs entering the region. Parameters of a multisite peaks-over-threshold model are allowed to vary conditional on the integrated moisture delivery from TMEs over the area. Parameters are also related to time-invariant, local characteristics to facilitate regionalization to ungaged sites. The model is developed and calibrated in a hierarchical Bayesian framework to support partial pooling and enhance regionalization skill. The model is cross validated along with two alternative, increasingly parsimonious formulations to assess the additional skill provided by the covariates. Climate diagnostics are also used to better understand the instances where TMEs fail to explain variations in rainfall extremes to provide a path forward for further model improvement. The modeling structure is designed to link seasonal forecasting and long-term projections of TMEs directly to regional models of extremes used for risk estimation. Results suggest that the inclusion of TME-based information greatly improves the characterization of extremes, particularly for their frequency of occurrence. Diagnostics indicate that the model could be further improved by considering an index for frontal systems as an additional covariate.

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Untitled

Cited by 250 publications

References 4 publications

Modeling Annual Extreme Precipitation in China Using the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution

Modeling Annual Extreme Precipitation in China Using the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution

Evolving deltas: Coevolution with engineered interventions

A hierarchicalBayesian regional model for nonstationary precipitation extremes inNorthernCalifornia conditioned on tropical moisture exports

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