Reflecting on the current scenario and forecasting the future demand for medical doctors in South Africa up to 2030: towards equal representation of women

Abstract

Background Increasing feminization of medical professions is well-acknowledged. However, this does not always equate to equitable representation of women within medicine, regarding their socio-demographic indicators, regions, sectors and fields of practice. Thus, this paper quantifies the gap in supply of female medical doctors in relation to demand, towards reaching different gender equity scenarios. Methods A retrospective review of the Health Professions Council of South Africa’s (HPCSA) database on registered medical doctors (medical practitioners and medical specialists) from 2002 until 2019 was utilized as an indicator of supply. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize data, and inferential statistics (considering a significance level of 0.05) were utilized to determine the association between the number of male and female doctors, disaggregated by demographic variables. We forecasted future gaps of South African male and female doctors up to 2030, based on maintaining the current male-to-female ratio and attaining an equitable ratio of 1:1. Results While the ratio of female doctors per 10 000 population has increased between 2000 and 2019, from 1.2 to 3.2, it remains substantially lower than the comparative rate for male doctors per 10 000 population which increased from 3.5 in 2000 to 4.7 in 2019. Men continue to dominate the medical profession in 2019, representing 59.4% (27,579) of medical doctors registered with the HPCSA with females representing 40.6% (18,841), resulting in a male-to-female ratio of 1:0.7. Female doctors from the Black population group have constantly grown in the medical workforce from 4.4% (2000), to 12.5% (2019). There would be a deficit of 2242 female doctors by 2030 to achieve a 1:1 ratio between male and female medical doctors. An independent-samples t-test revealed that there was a significant difference in the number of male and female doctors. The Kruskal–Wallis test indicated that there was a sustained significant difference in terms of the number of male and female doctors by population groups and geographical distribution. Conclusions Based on the investigation, we propose that HRH planning incorporate forecasting methodologies towards reaching gender equity targets to inform planning for production of healthcare workers.

Assessment of Human Resource for Eye Health Services in Southern Ethiopia.

“…This study showed signi cant gender differences in human resources for the eye health category. Of the 217 workforce, only 83 (38%) of the ophthalmic professionals practicing in the two regions were women; this is somewhat similar to the results found in India, where 42% of health workers were females [23], and South Africa, where 41.6% of medical doctors were women [24]. In contrast to our results, previous studies conducted in 57 countries and 104 countries [25,26] indicated a higher proportion of women employed in the health and social sectors, with an estimated 67% of health workers in the 104 countries analyzed being women [26].…”

Between suffering and coping: burnout in female medical doctors in South Africa

“…High empathy has been linked with a negative impact on health professionals’ mental health and increased risk for compassion fatigue and burnout ( Wagaman et al, 2015 ; Tiwari et al, 2021 ). There is a view that compassion and empathy are motivators for most entrants into the medical field and an adequate reward for the long hours and training ( Gitto and Trimarchi, 2016 ).…”

“…The study focuses especially on female medical doctors, due to the following reasons: firstly, there is a large gap between male and female medical doctors, showing that there is no equate to equitable representation of women within the medical field in South Africa, due to gender discrimination and inequality in the health workforce ( Tiwari et al, 2021 ; Alam et al, 2022 ), which might impact on burnout levels in female doctors. Secondly, a recent study showed the high levels of burnout, anxiety and depression in female medical doctors in South Africa, but did not explore female doctors’ mental health and well-being as such ( Naidoo et al, 2020 ; Meier and Kim, 2022 ).…”

Women leadership in dermatology: Moving towards gender equality

“…[ 17 ] Males represented 59.4% of medical doctors registered with the Health Professional Council of South Africa (HPCSA), with females representing 40.6%, resulting in a male-to-female ratio of 1:0.7. [ 18 ]…”