Gridded fossil CO2 emissions and related O2 combustion consistent with national inventories 1959–2018

Jones, Matthew W.; Andrew, Robbie M.; Peters, Glen P.; Janssens‐Maenhout, Greet; De-Gol, Anthony J.; Ciais, Philippe; Patra, Prabir K.; Chevallier, F.; Quéré, Corinne Le

doi:10.1038/s41597-020-00779-6

Cited by 76 publications

(67 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…CDIAC and BP statistics for non-Annex I countries from (Friedlingstein et al, 2020), whereas the red circumferences in Fig 8 show the average of emissions from available BUR or NC reports in each period (thus, for each period only data of available years of national inventories are used to calculate the average). For Annex I countries, the prior fossil CO2 emission maps prescribed to the inversions from Jones et al (2021) match by construction to national totals from UNFCCC. For non-Annex I countries, the prior fossil CO2 emission map is based mainly on CDIAC national emissions (Friedlingstein et al, 2020).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A common protocol unites them but this protocol only deals with the submission procedure and data formats: participants were free to design their inversion configuration in their own way, as long as their resulting inversion satisfied some quality criterion. A common gridded fossil fuel dataset with monthly resolution (Jones et al, 2021) was made available to the participants as a fixed prior, but its use was not compulsory.…”

Section: Co2 Inversionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparing national greenhouse gas budgets reported in UNFCCC inventories against atmospheric inversions

Deng

Ciais

Tzompa-Sosa

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. In support of the Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement on Climate change, this study presents a comprehensive framework to process the results of atmospheric inversions in order to make them suitable for evaluating UNFCCC national inventories of land-use carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and removals, corresponding to the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry and waste sectors. We also deduced anthropogenic methane (CH4) emissions regrouped into fossil and agriculture and waste emissions, and anthropogenic nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from inversions. To compare inversions with national reports, we compiled a new global harmonized database of national emissions and removals from periodical UNFCCC inventories by Annex I countries, and from sporadic and less detailed emissions reports by Non-Annex I countries, given by National Communications and Biennial Update Reports. The method to reconcile inversions with inventories is applied to selected large countries covering 78 % of the global land carbon uptake for CO2, as well as emissions and removals in the land use, land use change and forestry sector, and top-emitters of CH4 and N2O. Our method uses results from an ensemble of global inversions produced by the Global Carbon Project for the three greenhouse gases, with ancillary data. We examine the role of CO2 fluxes caused by lateral transfer processes from rivers and from trade in crop and wood products, and the role of carbon uptake in unmanaged lands, both not accounted for by the rules of inventories. Here we show that, despite a large spread across the inversions, the median of available inversion models points to a larger terrestrial carbon sink than inventories over temperate countries or groups of countries of the Northern Hemisphere like Russia, Canada and the European Union. For CH4, we find good consistency between the inversions assimilating only data from the global in-situ network and those using satellite CH4 retrievals, and a tendency for inversions to diagnose higher CH4 emissions estimates than reported by inventories. In particular, oil and gas extracting countries in Central Asia and the Persian Gulf region tend to systematically report lower emissions compared to those estimated by inversions. For N2O, inversions tend to produce higher anthropogenic emissions than inventories for tropical countries, even when attempting to consider only managed land emissions. In the inventories of many non-Annex I countries, this can be tentatively attributed to either a lack of reporting indirect N2O emissions from atmospheric deposition and from leaching to rivers, or to the existence of natural sources intertwined with managed lands, or to an under-estimation of N2O emission factors for direct agricultural soil emissions. The advantage of inversions is that they provide insights on seasonal and interannual greenhouse gas fluxes anomalies, e.g. during extreme events such as drought or abnormal fire episodes, whereas inventory methods are established to estimate trends and multi-annual changes. As a much denser sampling of atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations by different satellites coordinated into a global constellation is expected in the coming years, the methodology proposed here to compare inversion results with inventory reports could be applied regularly for monitoring the effectiveness of mitigation policy and progress by countries to meet the objective of their pledges.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Co2 Inversionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing national greenhouse gas budgets reported in UNFCCC inventories against atmospheric inversions

Deng

Ciais

Tzompa-Sosa

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…The inversion systems prescribe same global fossil fuel emissions for EFOS; specifically, the GCP's Gridded Fossil Emissions Dataset version 2021 (GCP-GridFEDv2021.2; Jones et al, 2021b), which is an update through 2020 of the first version of GCP-GridFED presented by Jones et al (2021a).…”

Section: C11 Cement Carbonationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Carbon Budget 2021

Friedlingstein

Jones

O’Sullivan

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data-products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the first time, an approach is shown to reconcile the difference in our ELUC estimate with the one from national greenhouse gases inventories, supporting the assessment of collective countries’ climate progress. For the year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4 % relative to 2019, with fossil emissions at 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission of 10.2 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (37.4 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2020, GATM was 5.0 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1 and SLAND was 2.9 ± 1 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.8 GtC yr−1. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2020 reached 412.45 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2021, suggest a rebound in EFOS relative to 2020 of +4.9 % (4.1 % to 5.7 %) globally. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2020, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra- tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Friedlingstein et al., 2020; Friedlingstein et al., 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, 2018a, 2016, 2015b, 2015a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2021 (Friedlingstein et al., 2021).

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“…The CHE project started in October 2017, bringing together a consortium of 22 European partners and lasting for over 3 years. By the end of the CHE project, the global-scale developments have 1) demonstrated the high-resolution CO 2 modelling capability in global Nature-runs (Agusti-Panareda et al, 2021), 2) integrated updated global CO 2 sectoral emission datasets (Choulga et al, 2020), 3) constructed a new high-resolution (∼10 km) input dataset for fossil CO 2 emissions since the 1960s (Jones et al, 2021), and 4) advanced the use of Ensemble-based uncertainty characterisation preparing the data assimilation step (McNorton et al, 2020). Sizeable advances at European scale include the realisation of high-resolution CO 2 emission inventories (Super et al, 2020b) that served also as exploratory studies of what can be achievable at global scale, where high quality inventories are made available.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The CO2 Human Emissions (CHE) Project: First Steps Towards a European Operational Capacity to Monitor Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions

Balsamo

Engelen

Thiemert

et al. 2021

Front. Remote Sens.

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The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is a binding international treaty signed by 196 nations to limit their greenhouse gas emissions through ever-reducing Nationally Determined Contributions and a system of 5-yearly Global Stocktakes in an Enhanced Transparency Framework. To support this process, the European Commission initiated the design and development of a new Copernicus service element that will use Earth observations mainly to monitor anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The CO2 Human Emissions (CHE) project has been successfully coordinating efforts of its 22 consortium partners, to advance the development of a European CO2 monitoring and verification support (CO2MVS) capacity for anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Several project achievements are presented and discussed here as examples. The CHE project has developed an enhanced capability to produce global, regional and local CO2 simulations, with a focus on the representation of anthropogenic sources. The project has achieved advances towards a CO2 global inversion capability at high resolution to connect atmospheric concentrations to surface emissions. CHE has also demonstrated the use of Earth observations (satellite and ground-based) as well as proxy data for human activity to constrain uncertainties and to enhance the timeliness of CO2 monitoring. High-resolution global simulations (at 9 km) covering the whole of 2015 (labelled CHE nature runs) fed regional and local simulations over Europe (at 5 km and 1 km resolution) and supported the generation of synthetic satellite observations simulating the contribution of a future dedicated Copernicus CO2 Monitoring Mission (CO2M).

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Gridded fossil CO2 emissions and related O2 combustion consistent with national inventories 1959–2018

Cited by 76 publications

References 54 publications

Comparing national greenhouse gas budgets reported in UNFCCC inventories against atmospheric inversions

Comparing national greenhouse gas budgets reported in UNFCCC inventories against atmospheric inversions

Global Carbon Budget 2021

The CO2 Human Emissions (CHE) Project: First Steps Towards a European Operational Capacity to Monitor Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions

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