2018
DOI: 10.1590/s1678-9946201860039
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Temporal analysis of the relationship between leptospirosis, rainfall levels and seasonality, Santa Catarina, Brazil, 2005-2015

Abstract: The objective of the study is to analyze the temporal trend of leptospirosis incidence, according to rainfall levels in Santa Catarina, according to seasonality, from 2005 to 2015. This is an ecological study of time series, with date of leptospirosis, rainfall levels and population. The incidence rates of leptospirosis, relative excess of incidence, Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) and an angular coefficient (β) were analyzed from the linear regression adjustment, with a 5% significance level. Distributi… Show more

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Cited by 18 publications
(13 citation statements)
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References 15 publications
(30 reference statements)
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“…Previous studies conducted in that state showed the highest incidence rates were predominantly in areas with agricultural land use, including rice and tobacco plantation [20,41]. In the South region, floods events, combined with environmental drivers and agriculture land use provide an environment suitable for leptospirosis transmission [20,41,69] and this is supported by our results.…”
Section: Plos Onesupporting
confidence: 89%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…Previous studies conducted in that state showed the highest incidence rates were predominantly in areas with agricultural land use, including rice and tobacco plantation [20,41]. In the South region, floods events, combined with environmental drivers and agriculture land use provide an environment suitable for leptospirosis transmission [20,41,69] and this is supported by our results.…”
Section: Plos Onesupporting
confidence: 89%
“…In 2011, the year with the highest number of leptospirosis cases, Brazil experienced two large flood events, one in the state of Santa Catarina and one in the mountain region of the state of Rio de Janeiro [ 76 , 77 ]. Temporal analysis of the relationship between rainfalls levels and leptospirosis in the state of Santa Catarina for a period of 11 years showed a positive association between the amount of rainfall and cases of the disease [ 69 ]. In the upcoming years, heavy rainfall and floods are projected to increase as a result of climate change, especially in the tropics, and this can further exacerbate the burden of leptospirosis in the future [ 35 , 56 , 78 , 79 ].…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Generally, massive leptospirosis outbreaks occur after heavy rain or flooding, notably after storms or hurricanes. Such outbreaks have been described in many tropical countries such as Brazil [22], Nicaragua [23], Sri Lanka [24] or the Philippines [25] among others, but seasonal peaks exist in most regions including tropical islands [26][27][28][29][30], illustrating the numerous environmental drivers of this disease [31]. Consequently, global climate change is expected to have an influence on the incidence and the distribution of leptospirosis [32][33][34].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In recent years, the state of Santa Catarina has presented an expressive number of hydrometeorological events, having as highlight flash flood events. When analyzing the different macro-regions of health, it was found that certain macro-regions are more susceptible to these occurrences, although it should be noted that Leptospirosis in Santa Catarina has seasonal characteristics and has endemics also observed in studies that relate leptospirosis to precipitation [42].…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%