2D Modelling of rockslide displacements by non-linear time dependent relationships

De, Mattia; Crosta, Giovanni B.; Castellanza, Riccardo; Agliardi, Federico; Volpi, Giorgio; Alberti, Stefano

doi:10.1201/9781315375007-79

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“…Nevertheless, the long‐term evolution of the geometry, internal structure, strength, and hydrology of alpine rocks slopes is usually unknown and poorly described by models focused on the analysis of onset mechanisms of rock slope failure and their topographic, lithological, structural, and climatic controls (Agliardi et al, ; Ambrosi & Crosta, ). Attempts to model different stages of long‐term alpine rock slope evolution must face several caveats , including (a) limitations of rheological approaches to the time‐dependent modeling of slope evolution, unless a landslide shear zone is predetermined (De Caro et al, ); (b) lack of knowledge regarding progressive evolution of fractures under nearly constant gravitational stress conditions; (c) almost unknown spatial and temporal water distribution in the slope during and after deglaciation (Crosta et al, ; McColl, ); (d) limited knowledge of the damage‐dependent evolution of rock mass permeability on the scale and stress conditions of rock slopes; and (e) limited understanding of hydromechanical controls on rockslide differentiation, as a major input to the development of rockslide forecasting.…”

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confidence: 99%

Damage‐Based Time‐Dependent Modeling of Paraglacial to Postglacial Progressive Failure of Large Rock Slopes

et al. 2018

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Large alpine rock slopes undergo long‐term evolution in paraglacial to postglacial environments. Rock mass weakening and increased permeability associated with the progressive failure of deglaciated slopes promote the development of potentially catastrophic rockslides. We captured the entire life cycle of alpine slopes in one damage‐based, time‐dependent 2‐D model of brittle creep, including deglaciation, damage‐dependent fluid occurrence, and rock mass property upscaling. We applied the model to the Spriana rock slope (Central Alps), affected by long‐term instability after Last Glacial Maximum and representing an active threat. We simulated the evolution of the slope from glaciated conditions to present day and calibrated the model using site investigation data and available temporal constraints. The model tracks the entire progressive failure path of the slope from deglaciation to rockslide development, without a priori assumptions on shear zone geometry and hydraulic conditions. Complete rockslide differentiation occurs through the transition from dilatant damage to a compacting basal shear zone, accounting for observed hydraulic barrier effects and perched aquifer formation. Our model investigates the mechanical role of deglaciation and damage‐controlled fluid distribution in the development of alpine rockslides. The absolute simulated timing of rock slope instability development supports a very long “paraglacial” period of subcritical rock mass damage. After initial damage localization during the Lateglacial, rockslide nucleation initiates soon after the onset of Holocene, whereas full mechanical and hydraulic rockslide differentiation occurs during Mid‐Holocene, supporting a key role of long‐term damage in the reported occurrence of widespread rockslide clusters of these ages.

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