Modelling the impact of correlations between condom use and sexual contact pattern on the dynamics of sexually transmitted infections

Yamamoto, Nao; Ejima, Keisuke; Nishiura, Hiroshi

doi:10.1186/s12976-018-0078-9

Cited by 20 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…In the present study, we aimed to validate social contacts in Japan using infectious disease data. We specifically investigated age-dependent cumulative incidence using seroepidemiological data and estimating a next-generation matrix, which would be key to real-time interpretation of epidemiological dynamics [61–64]. We thereby demonstrated the importance of accounting for age-dependent susceptibility.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying heterogeneous contact patterns in Japan: a social contact survey

Munasinghe

Asai

Nishiura

2019

Theor Biol Med Model

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Background Social contact surveys can greatly help in quantifying the heterogeneous patterns of infectious disease transmission. The present study aimed to conduct a contact survey in Japan, offering estimates of contact by age and location and validating a social contact matrix using a seroepidemiological dataset of influenza. Methods An internet-based questionnaire survey was conducted, covering all 47 prefectures in Japan and including a total of 1476 households. The social contact matrix was quantified assuming reciprocity and using the maximum likelihood method. By imposing several parametric assumptions for the next-generation matrix, the empirical seroepidemiological data of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 was analysed and we estimated the basic reproduction number, R 0 . Results In total, the reported number of contacts on weekdays was 10,682 whereas that on weekend days was 8867. Strong age-dependent assortativity was identified. Forty percent of weekday contacts took place at schools or workplaces, but that declined to 14% on weekends. Accounting for the age-dependent heterogeneity with the known social contact matrix, the minimum value of the Akaike information criterion was obtained and R 0 was estimated at 1.45 (95% confidence interval: 1.42, 1.49). Conclusions Survey datasets will be useful for parameterizing the heterogeneous transmission model of various directly transmitted infectious diseases in Japan. Age-dependent assortativity, especially among children, along with numerous contacts in school settings on weekdays implies the potential effectiveness of school closure. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12976-019-0102-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying heterogeneous contact patterns in Japan: a social contact survey

Munasinghe

Asai

Nishiura

2019

Theor Biol Med Model

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“…Research has focused on studying the use of condom and its effectiveness in people with high-risk sexual contact [7][8][9], however, there are only a few studies on general population, which show that they are less aware of risks and motivation for condom use decreases [10,11]. In the United States, among 15−44-year-old people, prevalence of anal intercourse slightly increased from 2002 to 2015 both in women (30-33%) and men (34-38%), condoms being used in 32% in women and 46% in men, and only 7% during oral sex; such low percentages regarding condom use in high-risk sexual practices lead to an increase in the likelihood of getting an STI [12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Association between Sexual Habits and Sexually Transmitted Infections at a Specialised Centre in Granada (Spain)

Santa-Bárbara

Hueso‐Montoro

Martín-Salvador

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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Sexually transmitted infections are an important public health issue. The purpose of this study is to analyse the association between different sexual habits and the prevalence of sexually transmitted infections in the population of Granada who consult with a specialised centre. An observational, cross-sectional study was conducted based on the medical records of 678 people from the Sexually Transmitted Diseases and Sexual Orientation Centre of Granada, who were diagnosed positively or negatively with a sexually transmitted infection, during the 2000−2014 period. Sociodemographic and clinical data, as well as data on frequency and type of sexual habits, frequency of condom use and sexually transmitted infection positive or negative diagnosis were collected. Univariate and bivariate analyses were conducted. The most popular sexual habits were vaginal intercourse, oral sex (mouth–vagina and mouth–penis) and the least popular were anus–mouth and anal sex. The use of condom is frequent in vaginal and anal sex and less frequent in oral sex. Sexually transmitted infection is associated with mouth–penis (p = 0.004) and mouth–vagina (p = 0.023) oral sex and anal sex (p = 0.031). It is observed that there is a relationship between the presence of STIs and oral sex practices, people having such practices being the ones who use condoms less frequently. There is also a relationship between anal sex and the prevalence of STIs, although in such sexual practice the use of condom does prevail.

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“…The use of smoothing with nonparametric back-projection is another of our ongoing studies (Becker, 1997). Fifth, the present study focused on the incidence estimation, and more explicit modeling of the transmission dynamics, including those highlighting the role of MSM (Yamamoto, Ejima & Nishiura, 2018), is the subject for future studies.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the incidence and diagnosed proportion of HIV infections in Japan: a statistical modeling study

Nishiura

2019

PeerJ

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BackgroundEpidemiological surveillance of HIV infection in Japan involves two technical problems for directly applying a classical backcalculation method, i.e., (i) all AIDS cases are not counted over time and (ii) people diagnosed with HIV have received antiretroviral therapy, extending the incubation period. The present study aimed to address these issues and estimate the HIV incidence and the proportion of diagnosed HIV infections, using a simple statistical model.MethodsFrom among Japanese nationals, yearly incidence data of HIV diagnoses and patients with AIDS who had not previously been diagnosed as HIV positive, from 1985 to 2017, were analyzed. Using the McKendrick partial differential equation, general convolution-like equations were derived, allowing estimation of the HIV incidence and the time-dependent rate of diagnosis. A likelihood-based approach was used to obtain parameter estimates.ResultsAssuming that the median incubation period was 10.0 years, the cumulative number of HIV infections was estimated to be 29,613 (95% confidence interval (CI): 29,059, 30,167) by the end of 2017, and the proportion of diagnosed HIV infections was estimated at 80.3% (95% CI [78.7%–82.0%]). Allowing the median incubation period to range from 7.5 to 12.3 years, the estimate of the proportion diagnosed can vary from 77% to 84%.DiscussionThe proportion of diagnosed HIV infections appears to have not yet reached 90% among Japanese nationals. Compared with the peak incidence from 2005–2008, new HIV infections have clearly been in a declining trend; however, there are still more than 1,000 new HIV infections per year in Japan. To increase the diagnosed proportion of HIV infections, it is critical to identify people who have difficulty accessing consultation, testing, and care, and to explore heterogeneous patterns of infection.

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Modelling the impact of correlations between condom use and sexual contact pattern on the dynamics of sexually transmitted infections

Cited by 20 publications

References 30 publications

Quantifying heterogeneous contact patterns in Japan: a social contact survey

Quantifying heterogeneous contact patterns in Japan: a social contact survey

Association between Sexual Habits and Sexually Transmitted Infections at a Specialised Centre in Granada (Spain)

Estimating the incidence and diagnosed proportion of HIV infections in Japan: a statistical modeling study

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