The Economic Case for a Pandemic Fund

Berry, Kevin; Allen, Talli; Horan, Richard D.; Shogren, Jason F.; Finnoff, David; Daszak, Peter

doi:10.1007/s10393-018-1338-1

Cited by 28 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Indeed, the need for scalable low-cost mass-printing of short DNA sequences was not evident until now, and hence the development of the relevant technology was never prioritized. Our findings here suggest reassessing these priorities 44 .…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 60%

Digital therapeutics for distributed response to global pandemics

Hacohen¹,

Cohen

Efroni

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Despite advances in the development of drugs and vaccines, the spread of infectious diseases remains an imminent threat to our global health, in extreme cases potentially having detrimental consequences. At present our response to this threat is based on physically distributing therapeutic material, which utilizes the same transportation networks that support the spread of the infectious agent itself. Such competition is at risk of failure in the face of a rapidly spreading pathogen, especially given the inevitable delay from the initial outbreak to the development and execution of our response. Moreover, based on our existing transportation networks, we show that such physical distribution is intrinsically inefficient, leading to an uneven concentration of the therapeutic within a small fraction of destinations, while leaving the majority of the population deprived. This suggests that outrunning a virulent epidemic can only be achieved if we develop a mitigation strategy that bypasses the existing distribution networks of biological and chemical material. Here we propose such a response, utilizing digitizable therapeutics, which can be distributed as digital sequence files and synthesized on location, exposing an extremely efficient mitigation scheme that systematically outperforms physical distribution. Our proposed strategy, based for example on nucleic acid therapeutics, is plausibly the only viable mitigation plan, based on current technology, that can face a violently spreading pathogen. Complementing the current paradigm, which ranks drugs based on efficacy, our analysis demonstrates the importance of balancing efficacy with distributability, finding that in some cases the latter plays the dominant role in the overall mitigation efficiency.When studied from the angle of its worst-case scenario, surviving a highly infectious pandemic depends on a competition between the infectious pathogen and the therapeutic technology, each racing to reach the majority of the population first. This competition confronts us with several challenges: (i) the inevitable response time R required for us to instigate a mitigation plan places the pathogen at a potentially significant spreading advantage; (ii) while the pathogen reproduces as it spreads 1-3 , a therapy must be manufactured and shipped from one or few sources, whose production and distribution capacity may be limited 4-12 ; (iii) the dissemination of antibiotics or vaccines can be hindered by various external factors, such as geopolitical and socio-economical constraints [13][14][15][16] , which have little effect on the propagation of bacteria and viruses. But even if such factors are eliminated, e.g., assuming that an effective cure already exists, stockpiled in sufficient quantities and benefits from worldwide cooperation in its distribution, it would still have to outrun the pathogen, competing along the same routes of dissemination as the epidemic, i.e. the international transportation networks 17-23 . For a rapidly progressing epidemic, such competition may f...

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 60%

Digital therapeutics for distributed response to global pandemics

Hacohen¹,

Cohen

Efroni

et al. 2018

Preprint

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“…In fact, societal initiatives have already been created, but they are difficult to sustain during “inter-pandemic” periods. Furthermore, in addition to creating an investment fund to prevent epidemics and pandemics, it is extremely important to know where and how these financial resources should be applied ( Yamey et al , 2017 ; Berry et al , 2018 ).…”

Section: Impacts Of Host Genetics On Susceptibility To Infections Andmentioning

confidence: 99%

Control and prevention of infectious diseases from a One Health perspective

et al. 2021

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The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has caught the attention of the global community and rekindled the debate about our ability to prevent and manage outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics. Many alternatives are suggested to address these urgent issues. Some of them are quite interesting, but with little practical application in the short or medium term. To realistically control infectious diseases, human, animal, and environmental factors need to be considered together, based on the One Health perspective. In this article, we highlight the most effective initiatives for the control and prevention of infectious diseases: vaccination; environmental sanitation; vector control; social programs that encourage a reduction in the population growth; control of urbanization; safe sex stimulation; testing; treatment of sexually and vertically transmitted infections; promotion of personal hygiene practices; food safety and proper nutrition; reduction of the human contact with wildlife and livestock; reduction of social inequalities; infectious disease surveillance; and biodiversity preservation. Subsequently, this article highlights the impacts of human genetics on susceptibility to infections and disease progression, using the SARS-CoV-2 infection as a study model. Finally, actions focused on mitigation of outbreaks and epidemics and the importance of conservation of ecosystems and translational ecology as public health strategies are also discussed.

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“…Eventually, it could trigger social unrest and destabilize governments by eroding public trust and confidence. If a ZD spreads rapidly across countries, it can also result in worldwide pandemics ( Berry et al, 2018 ; Ayano Ogawa, 2019 ), as the recent Covid-19 pandemic is demonstrating. And because of both the increased risk of animal diseases as well as stiffer competition to access productive resources in urban and peri-urban areas, farmers could be tempted to imprudently use antibiotics not only to treat sick animals but also as a growth promoter and/or for prophylaxis.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Africa: The livestock revolution urbanizes

Latino

Pica-Ciamarra

Wisser

2020

Global Food Security

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Population growth, rising income and urbanization have fueled a significant increase in demand for animal products in developing countries since the early 1970s. The phenomenon, dubbed as the Livestock Revolution, is anticipated to slow down in the coming decades, except in Africa where the Revolution is expected to continue and urbanize. This paper examines the urbanization of the Livestock Revolution in Africa. It estimates that in 2050 almost 70% of total meat and milk consumption will likely come from cities, with urban dwellers demanding, compared to today, 28 and 47 additional million metric tons of meat and milk, respectively. The consequent transformations of the livestock value chain serving urban and peri-urban areas may pose unprecedented public health and environmental challenges to policy-makers.

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The Economic Case for a Pandemic Fund

Cited by 28 publications

References 25 publications

Digital therapeutics for distributed response to global pandemics

Digital therapeutics for distributed response to global pandemics

Control and prevention of infectious diseases from a One Health perspective

Africa: The livestock revolution urbanizes

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