The Arctic-Subarctic sea ice system is entering a seasonal regime: Implications for future Arctic amplification

Haine, Thomas W. N.; Martin, Torge

doi:10.1038/s41598-017-04573-0

Cited by 41 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…These results expand on an analysis by Kinnard et al (2008) who found a gradual expansion of the SIZ since 1870 with a marked acceleration over the satellite era. The seasonality of Arctic sea ice has also been quantified by Haine and Martin (2017) using a metric to describe the annual range in SIE (winter max-summer min). They show that the seasonality of Arctic sea ice is increasing, driven largely by the record low summer SIE observed in recent years, which is also evident in our SIZ extent for Arctic Ocean regions ( figure 3).…”

Section: Siz Extentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional variability of Arctic sea ice seasonal change climate indicators from a passive microwave climate data record

Bliss

Steele

Peng

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The seasonal evolution of Arctic sea ice can be described by the timing of key dates of sea ice concentration (SIC) change during its annual retreat and advance cycle. Here, we use SICs from a satellite passive microwave climate data record to identify the sea ice dates of opening (DOO), retreat (DOR), advance (DOA), and closing (DOC) and the periods of time between these events. Regional variability in these key dates, periods, and sea ice melt onset and freeze-up dates for 12 Arctic regions during the melt seasons of 1979-2016 is investigated. We find statistically significant positive trends in the length of the melt season (outer ice-free period) for most of the eastern Arctic, the Bering Sea, and Hudson and Baffin Bays with trends as large as 11.9 d decade −1 observed in the Kara Sea. Trends in the DOR and DOA contribute to statistically significant increases in the length of the open water period for all regions within the Arctic Ocean ranging from 3.9 to 13.8 d decade −1 . The length of the ice retreat period (DOR−DOO) ranges from 17.1 d in the Sea of Okhotsk to 41 d in the Greenland Sea. The length of the ice advance period (DOC−DOA) is generally much shorter and ranges from 17.9 to 25.3 d in the Sea of Okhotsk and Greenland Sea, respectively. Additionally, we derive the extent of the seasonal ice zone (SIZ) and find statistically significant negative trends (SIZ is shrinking) in the Sea of Okhotsk, Baffin Bay, Greenland Sea, and Barents Sea regions, which are geographically open to the oceans and influenced by reduced winter sea ice extent. Within regions of the Arctic Ocean, statistically significant positive trends indicate that the extent of the SIZ is expanding as Arctic summer sea ice declines.

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Section: Siz Extentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional variability of Arctic sea ice seasonal change climate indicators from a passive microwave climate data record

Bliss

Steele

Peng

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Several positive feedbacks may be responsible for the rapid pace of shrinking sea ice extent. Sea ice loss is marked by an 1540 increasing transition from multi-year to seasonal sea ice, which is thinner and therefore more vulnerable to melt (Haine and Martin, 2017). First-year sea ice has increased from 40% to 60-70% of Arctic sea ice area between 1984 And 2018 .…”

Section: Rapid Decline Of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Risks Episodic Ice-frmentioning

confidence: 99%

ESD Reviews: mechanisms, evidence, and impacts of climate tipping elements

Wang

Hausfather

2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Increasing attention is focusing upon climate tipping elements – large-scale earth systems anticipated to respond through positive feedbacks to anthropogenic climate change by shifting towards new long-term states. In some but not all cases, such changes could produce additional greenhouse gas emissions or radiative forcing that could compound global warming. Developing greater understanding of tipping elements is important for predicting future climate risks. Here we review mechanisms, predictions, impacts, and knowledge gaps associated with ten notable climate tipping elements. We also evaluate which tipping elements are more imminent and whether shifts will likely manifest rapidly or over longer timescales. Some tipping elements are significant to future global climate and will likely affect major ecosystems, climate patterns, and/or carbon cycling within the current century. However, assessments under different emissions scenarios indicate a strong potential to reduce or avoid impacts associated with many tipping elements through climate change mitigation. Most tipping elements do not possess the potential for abrupt future change within years, and some tipping elements are perhaps more accurately termed climate feedbacks. Nevertheless, significant uncertainties remain associated with many tipping elements, highlighting an acute need for further research and modeling to better constrain risks.

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“…For these reasons the Arctic is particularly vulnerable to climate change. In the coming decades we may expect to enter a new regime, in which the interior Arctic Ocean is entirely ice free in summer and sea ice is thinner and more mobile in winter (e.g., Haine & Martin, ). Some climate model scenarios suggest that the Arctic Ocean may be seasonally ice free by ∼2050 (Collins et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding Arctic Ocean Circulation: A Review of Ocean Dynamics in a Changing Climate

2020

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The Arctic Ocean is a focal point of climate change, with ocean warming, freshening, sea-ice decline, and circulation that link to the changing atmospheric and terrestrial environment. Major features of the Arctic and the interconnected nature of its wind-and buoyancy-driven circulation are reviewed here by presenting a synthesis of observational data interpreted from the perspective of geophysical fluid dynamics (GFD). The general circulation is seen to be the superposition of Atlantic Water flowing into and around the Arctic basin and the two main wind-driven circulation features of the interior stratified Arctic Ocean: the Transpolar Drift Stream and the Beaufort Gyre. The specific drivers of these systems, including wind forcing, ice-ocean interactions, and surface buoyancy fluxes, and their associated GFD are explored. The essential understanding guides an assessment of how Arctic Ocean structure and dynamics might fundamentally change as the Arctic warms, sea-ice cover declines, and the ice that remains becomes more mobile.

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The Arctic-Subarctic sea ice system is entering a seasonal regime: Implications for future Arctic amplification

Cited by 41 publications

References 47 publications

Regional variability of Arctic sea ice seasonal change climate indicators from a passive microwave climate data record

Regional variability of Arctic sea ice seasonal change climate indicators from a passive microwave climate data record

ESD Reviews: mechanisms, evidence, and impacts of climate tipping elements

Understanding Arctic Ocean Circulation: A Review of Ocean Dynamics in a Changing Climate

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