Time series modelling to forecast prehospital EMS demand for diabetic emergencies

Villani, Melanie; Earnest, Arul; Nanayakkara, Natalie; Smith, Karen; Courten, Barbora de; Zoungas, Sophia

doi:10.1186/s12913-017-2280-6

Cited by 30 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…In addition, literature analysis shows that males and older people more often use medical services which are a part of the medical emergency systems worldwide, as confirmed by Villani et al and Hawkes et al [24,25].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 83%

Missions of the Helicopter Emergency Medical Service in rural and urban areas in Poland – A comparative retrospective analysis

Rzońca¹,

Gałązkowski²,

Wójcik-Fatla³

et al. 2019

Ann Agric Environ Med.

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Introduction. Mortality due to various causes, despite continuous efforts to improve the quality of medical services, is a serious problem for modern healthcare systems. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke are the cause of over 15 million deaths annually, and are therefore known as the world's number one killer. Objective. The aim of this study is to characterise the missions and the most common reasons for dispatching Helicopter Emergency Medical Service (HEMS) crews, with special emphasis on the differences between urban and rural areas. Materials and method. The study was conducted using a retrospective analysis of HEMS missions, including flights to accidents and diseases carried out by HEMS crews in Poland from January 2014-December 2018. The final analysis included 35,213 cases of HEMS missions. Results. The study group consisted mainly of male patients (66.40%), aged 50-64 (22.06%), mean age of the entire analysed group-47.71 (SD: 25.96). The main reason for HEMS missions were strokes (21.63%). Analysis of patients' clinical status revealed that the clinical status of patients treated in rural areas was more severe, which was indicated by the Glasgow Coma Scale-GCS (12.03 vs 12.35) and the Revised Trauma Scale-RTS (10.14 vs 10.60) scores. When assessed by the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics (NACA) score, body injuries and fatal diseases were observed more often in patients in rural areas (NACA 7 6.12% vs 3.46%) (p<0.05). Conclusions. Multi-organ injuries, head traumas, sudden cardiac arrest, traumatic brain injuries, collapse and epilepsy, were more frequent reasons for HEMS missions in rural areas than in urban areas.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 83%

Missions of the Helicopter Emergency Medical Service in rural and urban areas in Poland – A comparative retrospective analysis

Rzońca¹,

Gałązkowski²,

Wójcik-Fatla³

et al. 2019

Ann Agric Environ Med.

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“…Access to age-stratified data of the Victorian diabetic population for the study period was not available, thus precluding an age-adjusted rate ratio calculation. However, it is thought that the unadjusted and age-adjusted rate ratio would not differ substantially given the demographic changes during the study period were minimal [ 30 ]. In addition, DKA cases were not able to be distinguished from uncomplicated hyperglycaemia as ketone testing was not part of routine assessment.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Utilisation of prehospital emergency medical services for hyperglycaemia: A community-based observational study

et al. 2017

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AimsThis study examines prehospital Emergency Medical Service (EMS) utilisation and patterns of demand for hyperglycaemia management, including characteristics of individuals and factors related to hospital transport.Materials and methodsA state-wide, community-based observational study of all patients requiring prehospital EMS for hyperglycaemia during a 7 year study period (Jan 2009–Dec 2015) using electronic data from the Ambulance Victoria data warehouse was conducted. Pre-specified variables related to patient demographics, comorbidities, examination findings, paramedic treatment and transport outcomes were obtained. Logistic regression was used to assess factors associated with transport to hospital.ResultsThere were 11,417 cases of hyperglycaemia attended by paramedics during the study period, accounting for 0.3–0.4% of the total annual EMS caseload, and equating to 0.54 attendances per 100 people with diabetes in the state of Victoria, Australia, per year. There was a significant increase in annual utilisation, with a rate ratio of 1.62 between 2009 (2.42 cases per 10,000 population) and 2015 (3.91 cases per 10,000 population). Fifty-one percent of cases had type 2 diabetes, 37% had type 1 diabetes, 4% had diabetes with the type unspecified and 8% had no recorded history of diabetes. Ninety percent of cases were transported to hospital. Factors associated with increased odds of transport to hospital included no known history of diabetes, regional/rural locations, case time between 0600 and <1800 hours, increasing number of comorbidities and increasingly unstable vital sign observations.ConclusionThere is substantial utilisation of prehospital EMS for hyperglycaemia. With increased population prevalence of diabetes predicted, further research on opportunities for prevention, as well as optimal management in the prehospital environment is warranted.

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“…Next, we estimate the future health stock by using an econometric method. To forecast health stock, we applied ARIMA because it is commonly and widely used in a time series analysis [16, 25–27]. The ARIMA model also has the ability to use non-stationary time-series data, and many researchers use this model to forecast various health and medical phenomena [28].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Heterogeneous global health stock and growth: quantitative evidence from 140 countries, 1990–2100

2018

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BackgroundIn the prevailing economic perspective, health is viewed as a type of capital stock that yields ‘healthy days’ in human society. However, evaluations of this health capital stock are still limited to specific contexts. The primary aim of this study is to measure and forecast the global health stocks in 140 countries from 1990 to 2100.MethodsThe health capital stock in each country from 1990 to 2015 was estimated using a capital approach. The future health stocks between 2016 and 2100 were forecast using a time-series model.ResultsBased on the health stocks from 1990 to 2015, low-income countries have much larger and more rapidly growing health stocks. In the long-term, to 2100, upper-middle income countries, particularly countries in the Middle East and North Africa, exhibit great growth that benefits from the peaks in their youth or working-age populations. Immigration also contributes to health stock growth, as do other factors, e.g., the fertility rate, population ageing, and working-age and youth populations.ConclusionsHealth stock is a vital component of global sustainable development that should be consistently included as a stock-based sustainability index in the evaluations of other capital to accurately measure national wealth and sustainability.

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Time series modelling to forecast prehospital EMS demand for diabetic emergencies

Cited by 30 publications

References 22 publications

Missions of the Helicopter Emergency Medical Service in rural and urban areas in Poland – A comparative retrospective analysis

Missions of the Helicopter Emergency Medical Service in rural and urban areas in Poland – A comparative retrospective analysis

Utilisation of prehospital emergency medical services for hyperglycaemia: A community-based observational study

Heterogeneous global health stock and growth: quantitative evidence from 140 countries, 1990–2100

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