An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; Blois, Sylvie de; Berteaux, Dominique

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0152495

Cited by 32 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 41 publications

(41 reference statements)

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“…Despite this, climate change effects such as changes in ambient temperatures and extreme weather conditions can drive up energy usage and lead to increased fuel consumption and air emissions [113]. In addition, extreme drought conditions can lead to arid conditions and increased air pollution through wildfires, dry wind storms, and changes in types of aeroallergens (i.e., plant and animal species changes), all leading to increased adverse respiratory conditions for the very young and compromised across the globe [113,114]. The children of Southern Africa are uniquely susceptible to climate change effects, where this semi-arid region is becoming increasingly affected by droughts, flood, crop destabilization, and disease outbreak (e.g., cholera) [115].…”

Section: Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of the Field on Children’s Exposure to Environmental Contaminants: A Risk Assessment Approach

Ferguson

Penney

Solo‐Gabriele

2017

IJERPH

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Background: Children must be recognized as a sensitive population based on having biological systems and organs in various stages of development. The processes of absorption, distribution, metabolism and elimination of environmental contaminants within a child’s body are considered less advanced than those of adults, making them more susceptible to disease outcomes following even small doses. Children’s unique activities of crawling and practicing increased hand-to-mouth ingestion also make them vulnerable to greater exposures by certain contaminants within specific environments. Approach: There is a need to review the field of children’s environmental exposures in order to understand trends and identify gaps in research, which may lead to better protection of this vulnerable and sensitive population. Therefore, explored here are previously published contemporary works in the broad area of children’s environmental exposures and potential impact on health from around the world. A discussion of children’s exposure to environmental contaminants is best organized under the last four steps of a risk assessment approach: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment (including children’s activity patterns) and risk characterization. We first consider the many exposure hazards that exist in the indoor and outdoor environments, and emerging contaminants of concern that may help guide the risk assessment process in identifying focus areas for children. A section on special diseases of concern is also included. Conclusions: The field of children’s exposures to environmental contaminants is broad. Although there are some well-studied areas offering much insight into children exposures, research is still needed to further our understanding of exposures to newer compounds, growing disease trends and the role of gene-environment interactions that modify adverse health outcomes. It is clear that behaviors of adults and children play a role in reducing or increasing a child’s exposure, where strategies to better communicate and implement risk modifying behaviors are needed, and can be more effective than implementing changes in the physical environment.

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Section: Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of the Field on Children’s Exposure to Environmental Contaminants: A Risk Assessment Approach

Ferguson

Penney

Solo‐Gabriele

2017

IJERPH

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“…As a result, researchers typically assess climate change and its impacts under only one or a few climate change scenarios, selected arbitrarily with no justification, for instance those that used only A1B and A2 scenarios. Yet there is no any hard rule to select an appropriate subset of climate change scenarios among the wide range of possibilities (Casajus et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing the future climate change of Upper Blue Nile River basin using statistical downscaling techniques

Mekonnen

Disse

2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Climate change is becoming one of the most threatening issues for the world today in terms of its global context and its response to environmental and socioeconomic drivers. However, large uncertainties between different general circulation models (GCMs) and coarse spatial resolutions make it difficult to use the outputs of GCMs directly, especially for sustainable water management at regional scale, which introduces the need for downscaling techniques using a multimodel approach. This study aims (i) to evaluate the comparative performance of two widely used statistical downscaling techniques, namely the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) and the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), and (ii) to downscale future climate scenarios of precipitation, maximum temperature (T max ) and minimum temperature (T min ) of the Upper Blue Nile River basin at finer spatial and temporal scales to suit further hydrological impact studies. The calibration and validation result illustrates that both downscaling techniques (LARS-WG and SDSM) have shown comparable and good ability to simulate the current local climate variables. Further quantitative and qualitative comparative performance evaluation was done by equally weighted and varying weights of statistical indexes for precipitation only. The evaluation result showed that SDSM using the canESM2 CMIP5 GCM was able to reproduce more accurate long-term mean monthly precipitation but LARS-WG performed best in capturing the extreme events and distribution of daily precipitation in the whole data range.Six selected multimodel CMIP3 GCMs, namely HadCM3, GFDL-CM2.1, ECHAM5-OM, CCSM3, MRI-CGCM2.3.2 and CSIRO-MK3 GCMs, were used for downscaling climate scenarios by the LARS-WG model. The result from the ensemble mean of the six GCM showed an increasing trend for precipitation, T max and T min . The relative change in precipitation ranged from 1.0 to 14.4 % while the change for mean annual T max may increase from 0.4 to 4.3 • C and the change for mean annual T min may increase from 0.3 to 4.1 • C. The individual result of the HadCM3 GCM has a good agreement with the ensemble mean result. HadCM3 from CMIP3 using A2a and B2a scenarios and canESM2 from CMIP5 GCMs under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were downscaled by SDSM. The result from the two GCMs under five different scenarios agrees with the increasing direction of three climate variables (precipitation, T max and T min ). The relative change of the downscaled mean annual precipitation ranges from 2.1 to 43.8 % while the change for mean annual T max and T min may increase in the range from 0.4 to 2.9 • C and from 0.3 to 1.6 • C respectively.

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“…Uncertainty on the estimation of future species ranges may be due to the use of different ENM algorithms and Atmosphere‐Ocean Global Circulation Models—AOGCMs—(Watling et al, ). As many AOGCMs are available for the region and in order to avoid their subjective selection, we use an adaptation of the Casajus et al () approach. This procedure was performed for both RCPs (4.5 and 8.5) by the year 2050 based on 28 AOGCMs from the Global Climate Model database (http://ccafs-climate.org/; see Supporting Information Appendix , Table and Figure for further information about AOGCMs selection).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A dark scenario for Cerrado plant species: Effects of future climate, land use and protected areas ineffectiveness

Velazco

Villalobos

Galvão

et al. 2019

Diversity and Distributions

134

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Aim The anthropogenic climate change and land use change are considered two of the main factors that are altering biodiversity at the global scale. An evaluation that combined both factors can be relevant to detect which species could be the most vulnerable and reveal the regions of highest stability or susceptibility to biodiversity. We aimed to: (a) assess the effect of climate change and land use on the distribution of Cerrado plant species for different countries where they occur, (b) evaluate the effectiveness of the current network of protected areas (PAs) to safeguards species under different greenhouse–gas (GHG) emissions and land use scenarios, and (c) estimate the vulnerability of species based on protection effectiveness and habitat loss. Location Bolivia, Brazil and Paraguay. Methods We modelled the distribution of 1,553 plant species of Cerrado and evaluated species range loss caused by present and future land use and two GHG for 2050 and 2080. We assessed species vulnerability combining the representativeness of species within conservation units with the loss of species’ ranges outside PAs. Results We found that climate change and land use will cause great damage to Cerrado flora by 2050 and 2080, even under optimistic conditions. The greatest impacts of land use will occur in the regions where the greatest richness will be harboured. The conservation of the species will be seriously affected since the PA network is not as effective in safeguarding them under current or future conditions. Main conclusions The low level of protection together with the losses caused by the advance of agricultural lands will lead most species being highly vulnerable. Due to the distinct impacts of climate and land use over the three countries, conservation strategies should be implemented at transboundary and national levels.

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An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change

Cited by 32 publications

References 41 publications

A Review of the Field on Children’s Exposure to Environmental Contaminants: A Risk Assessment Approach

A Review of the Field on Children’s Exposure to Environmental Contaminants: A Risk Assessment Approach

Analyzing the future climate change of Upper Blue Nile River basin using statistical downscaling techniques

A dark scenario for Cerrado plant species: Effects of future climate, land use and protected areas ineffectiveness

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