Evaluating HIV prevention strategies for populations in key affected groups: the example of Cabo Verde

Abstract

Objectives We used an individual-based model to evaluate the effects of hypothetical prevention interventions on HIV incidence trajectories in a concentrated, mixed epidemic setting from 2011 to 2021, and using Cabo Verde as an example. Methods Simulations were conducted to evaluate the extent to which early HIV treatment and optimization of care, HIV testing, condom distribution, and substance abuse treatment could eliminate new infections (i.e., reduce incidence to less than 10 cases per 10,000 person-years) among non-drug users, female sex workers (FSW), and people who use drugs (PWUD). Results Scaling up all four interventions resulted in the largest decreases in HIV, with estimates ranging from 1.4 (95%CI:1.36–1.44) per 10,000 person-years among non-drug users to 8.2 (95%CI:7.8–8.6) per 10,000 person-years among PWUD in 2021. Intervention scenarios targeting FWS and PWUD also resulted in HIV incidence estimates at or below 10 per 10,000 person-years by 2021 for all population sub-groups. Conclusions Our results suggest that scaling up multiple interventions among entire population is necessary to achieve elimination. However, prioritizing key populations with this combination prevention strategy may also result in a substantial decrease in total incidence.

Using medical examiner case narratives to improve opioid overdose surveillance

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Modeling and optimal control of HIV/AIDS prevention through PrEP

“…In [23], the authors evaluate the effect of early HIV treatment and optimization of care, HIV testing, condom distribution, and substance abuse treatment on HIV incidence from 2011 to 2021, using Cape Verde as an example. However, they did not include PrEP for HIV negative groups at risk as a possible prevention measure.…”

The Interaction of Risk Network Structures and Virus Natural History in the Non-spreading of HIV Among People Who Inject Drugs in the Early Stages of the Epidemic

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