Projections of preventable risks for cardiovascular disease in Canada to 2021: a microsimulation modelling approach

Dujovny, Manuel; Tuna, Meltem; Hennessy, Deirdre; Bennett, Carol; Okhmatovskaia, Anya; Finès, Philippe; Tanuseputro, Peter; Tu, Jack V.; Flanagan, W. Michael

doi:10.9778/cmajo.2012-0015

Cited by 32 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 15 publications

(12 reference statements)

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“…1,2 In Canada, one in four adults is obese. 3 Excess consumption of energy-dense foods, inadequate physical activity, and increased sedentary behaviour have been identified as the most evidence of a relationship between BPA and obesity in humans has emerged but is limited to a small number of populations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Urinary bisphenol A and obesity in adults: results from the Canadian Health Measures Survey

Minh

Chang

Mendez

et al. 2017

Health Promot Chronic Dis Prev Can

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Introduction Exposure to bisphenol A (BPA) has been shown to affect lipid metabolism and promote weight gain in animal studies. Recent epidemiological studies also support a link between BPA and obesity in human populations, although many were limited to a single adiposity measure or have not considered potential confounding by dietary factors. The purpose of this study is to examine associations between urinary BPA and adiposity measures in a nationally representative sample of Canadian adults. Methods We performed analyses using biomonitoring and directly measured anthropometric data from 4733 adults aged 18 to 79 years in the Canadian Health Measures Survey (2007–2011). We used multinomial and binary logistic regression models to estimate associations of urinary BPA with body mass index (BMI) categories (overweight vs. under/normal weight; obesity vs. under/normal weight) and elevated waist circumference (males: ≥ 102 cm; females: ≥ 88 cm), respectively, while controlling for potential confounders. Linear regression analyses were also performed to assess associations between urinary BPA and continuous BMI and waist circumference measures. Results Urinary BPA was positively associated with BMI-defined obesity, with an odds ratio of 1.54 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.002–2.37) in the highest (vs. lowest) BPA quartile (test for trend, p = .041). Urinary BPA was not associated with elevated waist circumference defined using standard cut-offs. Additionally, each natural-log unit increase in urinary BPA concentration was associated with a 0.33 kg/m2 (95% CI: 0.10– 0.57) increase in BMI and a 1.00 cm (95% CI: 0.34–1.65) increase in waist circumference. Conclusion Our study contributes to the growing body of evidence that BPA is positively associated with obesity. Prospective studies with repeated measures are needed to address temporality and improve exposure classification.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Urinary bisphenol A and obesity in adults: results from the Canadian Health Measures Survey

Minh

Chang

Mendez

et al. 2017

Health Promot Chronic Dis Prev Can

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“…However, sociodemographic and health behaviour risk factors are part of other POHEM disease models and NPHSNC studies, and risk factors could be included in future MS modelling. 18 …”

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confidence: 99%

Multiple sclerosis in Canada 2011 to 2031: results of a microsimulation modelling study of epidemiological and economic impacts

Amankwah

Marrie

Bancej

et al. 2017

Health Promot Chronic Dis Prev Can

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“…A description of POHEM-OA has been published previously (17). The POHEM simulation platform, developed at Statistics Canada (23), was previously used in studies on cancer and cardiovascular disease prevention (24,25). Our model projections prior to 2011 can be compared to published estimates of the trends actually observed.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Once a person's BMI reached the normal range (BMI , 25), no further reductions ensued. Increases in BMI applied to those ages $20 years with BMI $18.5.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Reductions in Body Mass Index on the Future Osteoarthritis Burden in Canada: A Population‐Based Microsimulation Study

Kopeć

Sayre

Finès

et al. 2016

Arthritis Care & Research

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Objective. Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common joint disease and a major cause of disability. Incidence and prevalence of OA are expected to increase due to population aging and increased levels of obesity. The purpose of this study was to project the effect of hypothetical interventions that change the distribution of body mass index (BMI) on OA burden in Canada. Methods. We used a microsimulation computer model of OA based on the Population Health Model platform. The model used demographic predictions for Canada and population data from an administrative database in British Columbia and national Canadian surveys.Results. Under the base-case scenario, between 2010 and 2030, OA prevalence is expected to increase from 11.5% to 15.6% in men and 16.3% to 21.1% in women. In scenarios assuming, on average, a 0.3-, 0.5-, or 1-unit drop in BMI per year, OA prevalence in 2030 would reach 14.9%, 14.6%, and 14.2% in men and 20.3%, 19.7%, and 18.5%, in women, respectively. Under these scenarios, the proportion of new cases prevented would be 9.5%, 13.2%, and 16.7%, respectively, in men, and 9.1%, 15.2%, and 25.0% in women. Targeting only those people ages ‡50 years for weight reduction would achieve approximately 70% of the impact of a full population strategy. Targeting only the obese (BMI ‡30) would likely result in a larger benefit for men than women. Conclusion. Due to the aging of the population, OA will remain a major and growing health issue in Canada over the next 2 decades, regardless of the course of the obesity epidemic.

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Projections of preventable risks for cardiovascular disease in Canada to 2021: a microsimulation modelling approach

Abstract: Risks of cardiovascular disease are projected to decrease modestly in Canada, leading to a likely continuing decline in its incidence.

Cited by 32 publications

References 15 publications

Urinary bisphenol A and obesity in adults: results from the Canadian Health Measures Survey

Urinary bisphenol A and obesity in adults: results from the Canadian Health Measures Survey

Multiple sclerosis in Canada 2011 to 2031: results of a microsimulation modelling study of epidemiological and economic impacts

Effects of Reductions in Body Mass Index on the Future Osteoarthritis Burden in Canada: A Population‐Based Microsimulation Study

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