2014
DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2014.05.014
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Modeling the potential impact of vaccination on the epidemiology of congenital cytomegalovirus infection

Abstract: Background Understanding the potential for vaccination to change cytomegalovirus (CMV) epidemiology is important for developing CMV vaccines and designing clinical trials. Methods We constructed a deterministic, age-specific and time-dependent mathematical model of pathogen transmission, parameterized using CMV seroprevalence from the United States and Brazil, to predict the impact of vaccination on congenital CMV infection. Findings Concurrent vaccination of young children and adolescents would result in … Show more

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Cited by 31 publications
(22 citation statements)
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References 26 publications
(44 reference statements)
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“…For rubella vaccine, vaccinating male and female toddlers was superior to vaccinating only seronegative women in reducing viral circulation and the incidence of congenital disease. Preliminary modeling of the effect of various immunization strategies predicts that even a CMV vaccine with a relatively short duration of efficacy of a few years administered to 12–18 month-olds would substantially reduce cCMV incidence 37, 38 .…”
Section: Use Of a CMV Vaccine In Different Target Populations To Prevmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…For rubella vaccine, vaccinating male and female toddlers was superior to vaccinating only seronegative women in reducing viral circulation and the incidence of congenital disease. Preliminary modeling of the effect of various immunization strategies predicts that even a CMV vaccine with a relatively short duration of efficacy of a few years administered to 12–18 month-olds would substantially reduce cCMV incidence 37, 38 .…”
Section: Use Of a CMV Vaccine In Different Target Populations To Prevmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…For instance, a 2007 study estimated that the annual cost of seasonal influenza to the health system in Australia was AU$828-884 million [1]. Effective strategies for mitigating outbreaks should include a suitable combination of immunisation, vaccination, and palliative care [2,3,4] and planning these strategies requires reliable forecasting through simulation of various "what if?" scenarios.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Moreover, children with congenital or postnatal CMV infection may shed virus in the urine for prolonged periods, increasing the risk of primary CMV infection in their seronegative pregnant caretakers [3-5]. One possible CMV vaccine strategy is to immunize infants to prevent CMV infection, reduce viral shedding after primary infection, or to reduce the risk of severe congenital infection during pregnancy later in life, which has been a rationale for universal rubella immunization [6-8]. Another strategy is to vaccinate infants with congenital CMV infection as immunotherapy with or without antiviral agents, which has been the basis of CMV vaccine clinical trials in seropositive women or stem cell transplant recipients [6, 9, 10].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%