Using quantitative disease dynamics as a tool for guiding response to avian influenza in poultry in the United States of America

Pepin, Kim M.; Spackman, Erica; Brown, Justin D.; Pabilonia, Kristy L.; Garber, Lindsey; Weaver, James H.; Kennedy, David; Patyk, Kelly A.; Huyvaert, Kathryn P.; Miller, Ryan S.; Franklin, Alan B.; Pedersen, Kerri; Bogich, Tiffany L.; Rohani, Pejman; Shriner, Susan A.; Webb, Colleen T.; Riley, Steven

doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2013.11.011

Cited by 22 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 136 publications

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“…Several routes for indirect transmission have been implicated, including windborne spread (Ssematimba et al 2012a), contaminated food and water, and movement of people and virus-contaminated fomites (Alexander 2007;Pepin et al 2014). An open outdoor area in free-range poultry systems is therefore a considerable risk factor for transmission of AIV from wild birds to commercial poultry as this facilitates both direct and indirect contact (Koch & Elbers 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Poultry can become infected with AIV from wild birds and this could be followed by within-and between-flock spread (Pepin et al 2014). Important factors for primary introduction of AIV from wild birds are contaminated water (Stallknecht & Brown 2009), contact with waterfowl and terrestrial birds (Pantin-Jackwood & Swayne 2009;Slusher et al 2014;Shriner et al 2016) and wild mammals (Reperant et al 2009;Root et al 2015).…”

Section: Aiv Virus Reservoirs For Introduction To Poultrymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Important factors for primary introduction of AIV from wild birds are contaminated water (Stallknecht & Brown 2009), contact with waterfowl and terrestrial birds (Pantin-Jackwood & Swayne 2009;Slusher et al 2014;Shriner et al 2016) and wild mammals (Reperant et al 2009;Root et al 2015). Intermediate links such as farm workers' footwear may also be involved in virus transmission (Pepin et al 2014). Contaminated food and water, animal/insect vectors and air can play a role in the secondary spread of AIV within and between poultry flocks, but movement of man and fomites is considered most relevant for spread between farms (Alexander 2007).…”

Section: Aiv Virus Reservoirs For Introduction To Poultrymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Transmission efficiency is determined by virus shedding in the environment, environmental stability and the infective dose of the virus (Pantin-Jackwood & Swayne 2009;Pepin et al 2014). These concepts will be addressed with regard to the potential role of rodents in transmission of AIV to poultry.…”

Section: Aiv Virus Reservoirs For Introduction To Poultrymentioning

confidence: 99%

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The role of rodents in avian influenza outbreaks in poultry farms: a review

Velkers

Blokhuis

Kroeze³

et al. 2017

Veterinary Quarterly

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Wild migratory birds are associated with global avian influenza virus (AIV) spread. Although direct contact with wild birds and contaminated fomites is unlikely in modern non-free range poultry farms applying biosecurity measures, AIV outbreaks still occur. This suggests involvement of other intermediate factors for virus transmission between wild birds and poultry. This review describes current evidence of the potential role of rodents in AIV transmission from wild birds to poultry and between poultry houses. Rodents can be abundant around poultry houses, share their habitat with waterfowl and can readily enter poultry houses. Survival of AIV from waterfowl in poultry house surroundings and on the coat of rodents suggests that rodents are likely to act as mechanical vector. AIVs can replicate in rodents without adaptation, resulting in high viral titres in lungs and nasal turbinates, virus presence in nasal washes and saliva, and transmission to na€ ıve contact animals. Therefore, active AIV shedding by infected rodents may play a role in transmission to poultry. Further field and experimental studies are needed to provide evidence for a role of rodents in AIV epidemiology. Making poultry houses rodent-proof and the immediate surroundings unattractive for rodents are recommended as preventive measures against possible AIV introduction.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Aiv Virus Reservoirs For Introduction To Poultrymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Aiv Virus Reservoirs For Introduction To Poultrymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Aiv Virus Reservoirs For Introduction To Poultrymentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

The role of rodents in avian influenza outbreaks in poultry farms: a review

Velkers

Blokhuis

Kroeze³

et al. 2017

Veterinary Quarterly

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“…These issues arise with particular urgency in the case of the avian influenza viruses (AIVs), which present a global economic problem in the poultry industry costing annually hundreds of millions of dollars [16] and pose a serious public health risk due to the threat of emergence of a novel pathogen strain circulating among human hosts, with potentially devastating consequences [24]. Influenza A viruses can infect many species of warm-blooded vertebrates [26], but the great majority of viral strains appear to be found in wild waterbirds, such as shorebirds and gulls (Charadriiformes) and ducks and geese (Anseriformes) [12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics of low and high pathogenic avian influenza in wild and domestic bird populations

Tuncer

Torres

Martcheva

et al. 2015

Journal of Biological Dynamics

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This paper introduces a time-since-recovery structured, multi-strain, multi-population model of avian influenza. Influenza A viruses infect many species of wild and domestic birds and are classified into two groups based on their ability to cause disease: low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) and high pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Prior infection with LPAI provides partial immunity towards HPAI. The model introduced in this paper structures LPAI-recovered birds (wild and domestic) with time-since-recovery and includes crossimmunity towards HPAI that can fade with time. The model has a unique disease-free equilibrium (DFE), unique LPAI-only and HPAIonly equilibria and at least one coexistence equilibrium. We compute the reproduction numbers of LPAI (R L ) and HPAI (R H ) and show that the DFE is locally asymptotically stable when R L < 1 and R H < 1. A unique LPAI-only (HPAI-only) equilibrium exists when R L > 1 (R H > 1) and it is locally asymptotically stable if HPAI (LPAI) cannot invade the equilibrium, that is, if the invasion numberR H L < 1 (R L H < 1). We show using numerical simulations that the ODE version of the model, which is obtained by discarding the time-since-recovery structures (making cross-immunity constant), can exhibit oscillations, and also that the pathogens LPAI and HPAI can coexist with sustained oscillations in both populations. Through simulations, we show that even if both populations (wild and domestic) are sinks when alone, LPAI and HPAI can persist in both populations combined. Thus, reducing the reproduction numbers of LPAI and HPAI in each population to below unity is not enough to eradicate the disease. The pathogens can continue to coexist in both populations unless transmission between the populations is reduced. ARTICLE HISTORY

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Continental‐scale dynamics of avian influenza in U.S. waterfowl are driven by demography, migration, and temperature

Gorsich

Webb

Merton

et al. 2020

Ecological Applications

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Emerging diseases of wildlife origin are increasingly spilling over into humans and domestic animals. Surveillance and risk assessments for transmission between these populations are informed by a mechanistic understanding of the pathogens in wildlife reservoirs. For avian influenza viruses (AIV), much observational and experimental work in wildlife has been conducted at local scales, yet fully understanding their spread and distribution requires assessing the mechanisms acting at both local, (e.g., intrinsic epidemic dynamics), and continental scales, (e.g., long‐distance migration). Here, we combined a large, continental‐scale data set on low pathogenic, Type A AIV in the United States with a novel network‐based application of bird banding/recovery data to investigate the migration‐based drivers of AIV and their relative importance compared to well‐characterized local drivers (e.g., demography, environmental persistence). We compared among regression models reflecting hypothesized ecological processes and evaluated their ability to predict AIV in space and time using within and out‐of‐sample validation. We found that predictors of AIV were associated with multiple mechanisms at local and continental scales. Hypotheses characterizing local epidemic dynamics were strongly supported, with age, the age‐specific aggregation of migratory birds in an area and temperature being the best predictors of infection. Hypotheses defining larger, network‐based features of the migration processes, such as clustering or between‐cluster mixing explained less variation but were also supported. Therefore, our results support a role for local processes in driving the continental distribution of AIV.

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Using quantitative disease dynamics as a tool for guiding response to avian influenza in poultry in the United States of America

Cited by 22 publications

References 136 publications

The role of rodents in avian influenza outbreaks in poultry farms: a review

The role of rodents in avian influenza outbreaks in poultry farms: a review

Dynamics of low and high pathogenic avian influenza in wild and domestic bird populations

Continental‐scale dynamics of avian influenza in U.S. waterfowl are driven by demography, migration, and temperature

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