IPHEN—a real-time network for phenological monitoring and modelling in Italy

Abstract

This paper aims to describe the Italian PHEnology Network (IPHEN), a cooperative project started in 2006 with the aim of producing nationwide maps of analysis and forecast of plants phenological stages mainly used to satisfy the needs of agriculture, health and environmental care. Iphen is a data processing system composed of the following main segments (a) collection of atmospheric and phenological data, (b) processing of data with suitable phenological and geo-statistical models and (c) phenological maps of analysis and forecast. In more detail, IPHEN maps of analysis (featuring phenological stages reached at the date of processing) are produced with models based on a Normal Heat Hours approach which weighs hourly air temperature effectiveness for plant phenological progression applied to national grids of hourly temperature derived from the operational agro-meteorological network of CRA-CMA. A correction scheme based on phenological surveys provided by volunteer observers is applied to the first guess maps of analysis to obtain final maps. Forecast maps (prediction of the days of occurrence of relevant phenological stages) are produced on the basis of GFS model medium range forecasts and climatic data. Freeware IPHEN maps for grapevine, common and Arizona cypress, black elder, olive and locust trees are broadcasted weekly on the CRA-CMA website. The positive operational results of IPHEN are testified by 150 maps broadcasted during the 2011 season for the above-mentioned species. The system performances and reliability have been analysed focusing on the analysis of phenological simulation errors and on the sensitivity of phenological maps to anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns. The error analysis shows that phenological models are characterized by advances/delays that justify the adoption of an observation based correction scheme. The sensitivity analysis highlights that the system is responsive to the effects of circulation blocking systems leading to phenological advances and delays.

Changes in thermal resources and limitations for Georgian viticulture

“…In the specific case of grapevine (Mariani et al ), in order to simulate the exit from eco‐dormancy, the hourly accumulation of NHH starts after winter, when the average temperature of a 10 day period, overcomes the empirical threshold of 6°C. The model does not take into account endo‐dormancy because its simulation does not improve the accuracy of phenological simulation of grapevine, due to the low need for chilling in grapevine, which in Georgia is already satisfied before the end of autumn.…”

“…Specific thresholds of NHH accumulation were defined to describe the development of the international cultivars Cabernet Sauvignon and Chardonnay (Mariani et al ), the Italian cultivar Barbera (Cola et al ) and four Georgian cultivars Mtsvane Kakhuri, Rkatsiteli, Ojaleshi and Saperavi (Cola et al ). The positive performance showed by all the models confirmed the goodness of the parameterisation, and the parameters were assumed to be representative of grapevine growth, irrespective of the cultivar.…”

“…Among those, the normal heat hour (NHH) method proposed by Mariani et al () applied a response curve to hourly temperature, defining the availability of resources for plant growth on the base of cardinal and optimal temperature. This model was used to describe the phenological development of cypress, olive, black elder (Mariani et al ), tomato (Bulgari et al ), wheat, barley, maize and sorghum (Cola et al ). The same model was calibrated for grapevine cultivars Cabernet Sauvignon, Chardonnay (Mariani et al ), Barbera (Cola et al ) and four Georgian cultivars (Mtsvane Kakhuri, Rkatsiteli, Ojaleshi and Saperavi) (Cola et al ).…”

“…This model was used to describe the phenological development of cypress, olive, black elder (Mariani et al ), tomato (Bulgari et al ), wheat, barley, maize and sorghum (Cola et al ). The same model was calibrated for grapevine cultivars Cabernet Sauvignon, Chardonnay (Mariani et al ), Barbera (Cola et al ) and four Georgian cultivars (Mtsvane Kakhuri, Rkatsiteli, Ojaleshi and Saperavi) (Cola et al ). Furthermore, NHHs were also used for a comprehensive analysis of the effects of climate change on the distribution of European crops, grapevine included.…”

Model Development to Predict Phenological scale of Table Grapes (cvs. Thompson, Crimson and Superior Seedless and Red Globe) using Growing Degree Days

“…Chmielewski et al (2011) developed a predictive model for Malus domestica in Germany, with the aim of studying the impact of climate change. For Vitis vinifera, several authors have generated predictive models for phenology, either as management tools (Williams et al, 1985a and b;Ortega-Farías et al, 2002;Valdés-Gómez et al, 2009;Mariani et al, 2013;Cola et al, 2014;Molitor et al, 2014b;Santibáñez et al, 2014) or to assess the potential impact of climate change effects in different grape productive areas of the world (Webb et al, 2007;Caffarra and Eccel, 2010;Jorquera-Fontena and Orrego-Verdugo, 2010;Marta et al, 2010;Moriondo et al, 2011;Fila et al, 2012). A summary of the mechanisms used for the development of predictive models can be found in Chuine et al (2013).…”