Untitled

Kilgour, D. Marc; Dinar, Ariel

doi:10.1023/a:1011100130736

Cited by 101 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 12 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In contrast, "real world" models coupling agent behaviour to hydrologic models that are carefully calibrated and tested against empirical observations may yield reliable results for a particular site, but often lack abstraction and comparability beyond that study site. A third category, "stylized models" (Chakravorty and Umetsu, 2003;Kilgour and Dinar, 2001) offers a compromise between detail and generalizability. Such models have been used by economists in both natural resources and other contexts.…”

Section: Review Of Methodological Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reimagining the past – use of counterfactual trajectories in socio-hydrological modelling: the case of Chennai, India

Srinivasan

2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. The developing world is rapidly urbanizing. One of the challenges associated with this growth will be to supply water to growing cities of the developing world. Traditional planning tools fare poorly over 30-50 year time horizons because these systems are changing so rapidly. Models that hold land use, economic patterns, governance systems or technology static over a long planning horizon could result in inaccurate predictions leading to sub-optimal or paradoxical outcomes. Most models fail to account for adaptive responses by humans that in turn influence water resource availability, resulting in coevolution of the human-water system. Is a particular trajectory inevitable given a city's natural resource endowment, is the trajectory purely driven by policy or are there tipping points in the evolution of a city's growth that shift it from one trajectory onto another?Socio-hydrology has been defined as a new science of water and people that will explicitly account for such bidirectional feedbacks. However, a particular challenge in incorporating such feedbacks is imagining technological, social and political futures that could fundamentally alter future water demand, allocation and use. This paper offers an alternative approach -the use of counterfactual trajectories -that allows policy insights to be gleaned without having to predict social futures. The approach allows us to "reimagine the past"; to observe how outcomes would differ if different decisions had been made.The paper presents a "socio-hydrological" model that simulates the feedbacks between the human, engineered and hydrological systems in Chennai, India over a 40-year period. The model offers several interesting insights. First, the study demonstrates that urban household water security goes beyond piped water supply. When piped supply fails, users turn to their own wells. If the wells dry up, consumers purchase expensive tanker water or curtail water use and thus become water insecure. Second, unsurprisingly, different initial conditions result in different trajectories. But initial advantages in piped infrastructure are eroded if the utility is unable to expand the piped system to keep up with growth. Both infrastructure and sound management decisions are necessary to ensure household water security although the impacts of mismanagement may not manifest until much later when the population has grown and a multi-year drought strikes. Third, natural resource endowments can limit the benefits of good policy and infrastructure. Cities can boost recharge through artificial recharge schemes. However, cities underlain by productive aquifers can better rely on groundwater as a buffer against drought, compared to cities with unproductive aquifers.

show abstract

Section: Review Of Methodological Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reimagining the past – use of counterfactual trajectories in socio-hydrological modelling: the case of Chennai, India

Srinivasan

2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Some institutions address this issue by complex allocation schemes that vary by flow level. The resilience of such schemes depends on the ability to agree on flow level, accuracy in modeling yield and variability, adjustments accounting for varied availability, and the amount of flow left unallocated (instream) (Kilgour and Dinar 2001).…”

Section: Water Allocation Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Resilience in Transboundary Water Governance: the Okavango River Basin

Green¹,

Cosens²,

Garmestani³

2013

E&S

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

ABSTRACT. When the availability of a vital resource varies between times of overabundance and extreme scarcity, management regimes must manifest flexibility and authority to adapt while maintaining legitimacy. Unfortunately, the need for adaptability often conflicts with the desire for certainty in legal and regulatory regimes, and laws that fail to account for variability often result in conflict when the inevitable disturbance occurs. Additional keys to resilience are collaboration among physical scientists, political actors, local leaders, and other stakeholders, and, when the commons is shared among sovereign states, collaboration between and among institutions with authority to act at different scales or with respect to different aspects of an ecological system. At the scale of transboundary river basins, where treaties govern water utilization, particular treaty mechanisms can reduce conflict potential by fostering collaboration and accounting for change. One necessary element is a mechanism for coordination and collaboration at the scale of the basin. This could be satisfied by mechanisms ranging from informal networks to the establishment of an international commission to jointly manage water, but a mechanism for collaboration at the basin scale alone does not ensure sound water management. To better guide resource management, study of applied resilience theory has revealed a number of management practices that are integral for adaptive governance. Here, we describe key resilience principles for treaty design and adaptive governance and then apply the principles to a case study of one transboundary basin where the need and willingness to manage collaboratively and iteratively is high-the Okavango River Basin of southwest Africa. This descriptive and applied approach should be particularly instructive for treaty negotiators, transboundary resource managers, and should aid program developers.

show abstract

“…[11] Observed that the most significant conflicts involving transboundary waters occur due to disputes regarding their use, pollution issues and equal access to resources in situations of either absolute or relative scarcity. Regarding equal access, [12] noted that most issues concerning water allocation are defined either through market solutions or through cooperative joint development of projects [13].…”

Section: Challenges For Management Of Shared Watersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Shared Management of Water Resources among Sovereign States in Latin America: The Case of the River Plate Basin

Calhman¹,

Hora²

2016

JEP

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The present article sought to address the issue of shared management of water resources among sovereign states in Latin America, focusing on the hydrographic basin of the River Plate. The methodology of the Transboundary Waters Assessment Programme for river basins proposed by the United Nations was used to evaluate risks within current and future scenarios. The results obtained allow the inference that the River Plate basin is in a moderate-risk category. However, high and very high risk values were observed for the pollution, dams and economic reliance indicators, which in the future horizon could promote conflicts regarding water resource use. In conclusion, states should establish their priorities and clear rules for monitoring, use and surveillance of water. This process should be done in an integrated manner, with due regard for international arrangements, and should be compatible with the policies and management instruments of the countries involved.

show abstract

Untitled

Cited by 101 publications

References 12 publications

Reimagining the past – use of counterfactual trajectories in socio-hydrological modelling: the case of Chennai, India

Reimagining the past – use of counterfactual trajectories in socio-hydrological modelling: the case of Chennai, India

Resilience in Transboundary Water Governance: the Okavango River Basin

Shared Management of Water Resources among Sovereign States in Latin America: The Case of the River Plate Basin

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About