Abstract:My paper provides long-run evidence on the dynamic effects of supply and demand shocks on mineral commodity prices. I assemble and analyze a new data set of price and production levels of copper, lead, tin, and zinc from 1840 to 2010. Price fluctuations are primarily driven by demand rather than supply shocks. Demand shocks affect the price persistently for up to fifteen years, whereas the effect of mineral supply shocks persists for a maximum of five years. My paper shows that price surges caused by rapid ind… Show more
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