Reopening borders: protocols for resuming travel during the COVID-19 pandemic

Nali, Luiz Henrique da Silva; Salvador, Felipe Scassi; Soares, Graciela dos Santos; Júnior, Heitor Franco de Andrade; Luna, Expedito Jossé de Albuquerque; Fujita, Dennis Minoru

doi:10.6061/clinics/2021/e2723

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…With the development of epidemics, the vaccination program (Kaur and Gupta 2020 ) and the border reopening measures (Nali et al. 2021 ) are implemented, which cause a variety of influences on PD and PIS. First, the PD of susceptible population becomes lower because the vaccination of COVID-19 provides a barrier for those vaccinated individuals.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the Geographic Transmission Differences of COVID-19 in China Caused by Population Movement and Population Density

Wang

2022

Bull Math Biol

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The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has led to a global pandemic and caused huge healthy and economic losses. Non-pharmaceutical interventions, especially contact tracing and social distance restrictions, play a vital role in the control of COVID-19. Understanding the spatial impact is essential for designing such a control policy. Based on epidemic data of the confirmed cases after the Wuhan lockdown, we calculate the invasive reproduction numbers of COVID-19 in the different regions of China. Statistical analysis indicates a significant positive correlation between the reproduction numbers and the population input sizes from Wuhan, which indicates that the large-scale population movement contributed a lot to the geographic spread of COVID-19 in China. Moreover, there is a significant positive correlation between reproduction numbers and local population densities, which shows that the higher population density intensifies the spread of disease. Considering that in the early stage, there were sequential imported cases that affected the estimation of reproduction numbers, we classify the imported cases and local cases through the information of epidemiological data and calculate the net invasive reproduction number to quantify the local spread of the epidemic. The results are applied to the design of border control policy on the basis of vaccination coverage.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the Geographic Transmission Differences of COVID-19 in China Caused by Population Movement and Population Density

Wang

2022

Bull Math Biol

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“…Our work was motivated by a need for regions that successfully implemented an elimination strategy during the first 18 months of the COVID-19 pandemic to quantify the risk of SARS-CoV-2 spread in their communities, and from a need for guidelines to exit an elimination strategy when high vaccination levels have been achieved to be developed. While guidelines for reopening have been developed by many jurisdictions, those using criteria expressed as the number of observed community cases (Anderson et al, 2021; Nali et al, 2021) are not helpful for regions that are reopening when there are few community cases. There is a need to communicate reasonable expectations to the public in regions where elimination has been implemented, as relaxation of measures might have little or no impact on the epidemics when infection prevalence is already high (Russell et al, 2021; Chen et al, 2020), but might well bring risk to populations with zero or low COVID-19 prevalence (Russell et al, 2021; Chen et al, 2020; Arino et al, 2021), even when measures are carefully and reasonably relaxed, and particularly if the prevalence of variants of concern is higher outside the jurisdiction than in (Wells et al, 2020; Grépin et al, 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pandemic modelling for regions implementing an elimination strategy

Hurford

Martignoni

Loredo-Osti

et al. 2022

Preprint

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During the COVID-19 pandemic, some countries, such as Australia, China, Iceland, New Zealand, Thailand and Vietnam, successfully implemented an elimination strategy. Until June 2021, Atlantic Canada and Canada's territories had also experienced prolonged periods with few SARS-CoV-2 community cases. Such regions had a need for epidemiological models that could assess the risk of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks, but most existing frameworks are applicable to regions where SARS-CoV-2 is spreading in the community, and so it was necessary to adapt existing frameworks to meet this need. We distinguish between infections that are travel-related and those that occur in the community, and find that in Newfoundland and Labrador (NL), Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island the mean percentage of daily cases that were travel-related was 80% or greater (July 1, 2020 -- May 31, 2021). We show that by December 24, 2021, the daily probability of an Omicron variant community outbreak establishing in NL was near one, and nearly twice as high as the previous high, which occurred in September 2021 when the Delta variant was dominant. We evaluate how vaccination and new variants might affect hypothetical future outbreaks in Mt. Pearl, NL. Our modelling framework can be used to evaluate alternative plans to relax public health restrictions when high levels of vaccination are achieved in regions that have implemented an elimination strategy.

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“…Em seguida, difunde-se aos interiores por via terrestre 27 . Apesar de ter sido duramente impactadas no início, as viagens, de forma geral, foram retomadas com a adoção dos protocolos 28 . O maior problema na área se concentra no transporte público, responsável pelo deslocamento diário de milhões de pessoas nos grandes centros urbanos 29 .…”

Section: Discussionunclassified

O efeito das medidas de distanciamento social sobre a incidência de COVID-19 no Brasil: uma análise multisetorial

Silva

Rocha

Filho

2022

Medicina (Ribeirão Preto)

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Objetivo: Este artigo estima o impacto das medidas de distanciamento social sobre a incidência de COVID-19 a partir de uma perspectiva multissetorial. Métodos: O desenho de pesquisa utiliza um modelo de regressão em painel para analisar a relação entre restrições de mobilidade em diferentes setores econômicos e a dinâmica longitudinal da doença nos estados do Brasil. Resultados: Os principais resultados indicam que apenas os coeficientes das variáveis que representam os setores de restaurantes (p-valor < 0,05), compras (p-valor < 0,05) e transporte (p-valor < 0,001) obtiveram significância estatística. Em especial, o transporte (std= -0,674) é a variável que mais influencia a variação do número de casos de COVID-19. Conclusões: As evidências reportadas nesta pesquisa podem auxiliar o processo de tomada de decisão dos gestores governamentais a respeito da eficácia de intervenções não farmacológicas como instrumento para reduzir a disseminação da COVID-19.

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Reopening borders: protocols for resuming travel during the COVID-19 pandemic

Cited by 3 publications

References 9 publications

Analysis of the Geographic Transmission Differences of COVID-19 in China Caused by Population Movement and Population Density

Analysis of the Geographic Transmission Differences of COVID-19 in China Caused by Population Movement and Population Density

Pandemic modelling for regions implementing an elimination strategy

O efeito das medidas de distanciamento social sobre a incidência de COVID-19 no Brasil: uma análise multisetorial

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