ObjectiveTo assess the clinical value of four models for the prediction of cardiac
surgery-associated acute kidney injury (CSA-AKI) and severe AKI which renal
replacement therapy was needed (RRT-AKI) in Chinese patients.Methods1587 patients who underwent cardiac surgery in the department of cardiac
surgery in the Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, between January 2013
and December 2013 were enrolled in this research. Evaluating the predicting
value for cardiac surgery-associated AKI (AKICS score) and RRT-AKI
(Cleveland score, SRI and Mehta score) by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit
test for the calibration and area under receiver operating characteristic
curve (AUROC) for the discrimination.ResultsBased on 2012 KDIGO (Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes) AKI
definition, the incidence of AKI and RRT-AKI was 37.4% (594/1587) and 1.1%
(18/1587), respectively. The mortality of AKI and RRT-AKI was 6.1% (36/594)
and 66.7% (12/18), respectively, while the total mortality was 2.8%
(44/1587). The discrimination (AUROC=0.610) for the prediction of CSA-AKI of
AKICS was low, while the calibration (x2=7.55,
P=0.109) was fair. For the prediction of RRT-AKI, the
discrimination of Cleveland score (AUROC=0.684), Mehta score (AUROC=0.708)
and SRI (AUROC=0.622) were not good; while the calibration of them were fair
(Cleveland score x2=1.918, P=0.166; Mehta score
x2=9.209, P=0.238; SRI x2=2.976,
P=0.271).ConclusionIn our single-center study, based upon valve surgery dominant and less
diabetes mellitus patients, according to KDIGO AKI definition, the
predictive value of the four models, combining discrimination and
calibration, for respective primary event, were not convincible.