GuaragnaSCORE prediz satisfatoriamente os desfechos em cirurgia cardíaca valvar em hospital brasileiro

Sá, Michel Pompeu Barros de Oliveira; Sá, Marcus Villander Barros de Oliveira; Albuquerque, Ana Carla Lopes de; Silva, Belisa Barreto Gomes da; Siqueira, José Williams Muniz de; Brito, Phabllo Rodrigo Santos de; Vasconcelos, Frederico Pires; Lima, Ricardo de Carvalho

doi:10.5935/1678-9741.20120003

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 18 publications

(5 reference statements)

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“…In the modern evolution of risk assessment, it has been widespread the concept of applying external models and remold them to the characteristics of the region [ 25 ] . To apply a risk score, it must first be remolded (adaptation of the variables and their weights) or at least recalibrated (adjusting the weights of the variables) and never used form of ready-made (without adaptation of the variables and their weights) [ 24 ] .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To apply a risk score, it must first be remolded (adaptation of the variables and their weights) or at least recalibrated (adjusting the weights of the variables) and never used form of ready-made (without adaptation of the variables and their weights) [ 24 ] . In Brazil, the adhesion of a model itself is of paramount importance, especially by differences in patient characteristics, clinical presentation due to socioeconomic, cultural and geographical reasons, the uneven distribution of medical facilities and the high endemicity of subclinical inflammation, infection and rheumatic disease [ 25 ] .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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EuroSCORE II and the importance of a local model, InsCor and the future SP-SCORE

Lisboa¹,

Mejía²,

Moreira³

et al. 2014

Revista Brasileira De Cirurgia Cardiovascular

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

EuroSCORE II and the importance of a local model, InsCor and the future SP-SCORE

Lisboa¹,

Mejía²,

Moreira³

et al. 2014

Revista Brasileira De Cirurgia Cardiovascular

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“…To our knowledge, Hannan's score has not been previously validated in a sample involving patients from developing countries. Finally, Guaragna published a valve-specific model validated in a Brazilian population [ 12 ], with a resulting area under the curve of 0.83 in the original publication and 0.78 in a subsequent validation [ 15 ]. Our current development of the RheSCORE model can be considered as the next generation in model development, with prediction results that far surpass the ones from classical scores.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictive performance of six mortality risk scores and the development of a novel model in a prospective cohort of patients undergoing valve surgery secondary to rheumatic fever

et al. 2018

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BackgroundMortality prediction after cardiac procedures is an essential tool in clinical decision making. Although rheumatic cardiac disease remains a major cause of heart surgery in the world no previous study validated risk scores in a sample exclusively with this condition.ObjectivesDevelop a novel predictive model focused on mortality prediction among patients undergoing cardiac surgery secondary to rheumatic valve conditions.MethodsWe conducted prospective consecutive all-comers patients with rheumatic heart disease (RHD) referred for surgical treatment of valve disease between May 2010 and July of 2015. Risk scores for hospital mortality were calculated using the 2000 Bernstein-Parsonnet, EuroSCORE II, InsCor, AmblerSCORE, GuaragnaSCORE, and the New York SCORE. In addition, we developed the rheumatic heart valve surgery score (RheSCORE).ResultsA total of 2,919 RHD patients underwent heart valve surgery. After evaluating 13 different models, the top performing areas under the curve were achieved using Random Forest (0.982) and Neural Network (0.952). Most influential predictors across all models included left atrium size, high creatinine values, a tricuspid procedure, reoperation and pulmonary hypertension. Areas under the curve for previously developed scores were all below the performance for the RheSCORE model: 2000 Bernstein-Parsonnet (0.876), EuroSCORE II (0.857), InsCor (0.835), Ambler (0.831), Guaragna (0.816) and the New York score (0.834). A web application is presented where researchers and providers can calculate predicted mortality based on the RheSCORE.ConclusionsThe RheSCORE model outperformed pre-existing scores in a sample of patients with rheumatic cardiac disease.

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“…Score calibration calculated by the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test indicated a good performance of the model (r = 0.98, x² = 5.61 and p = 0.691). Our score had internal validation, obtaining a ROC curve of 0.84 and a H-L test with p = 0.37, and also were validated in another national institution 4 , obtaining a 0.78 ROC curve and a H-L test with p = 0.81. In our study, the overall death rate was 11.8%, and, in elective surgeries, 8.8%.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Escores de risco nas cirurgias cardíacas valvares

Cadore¹,

Guaragna²,

Bodanese³

2013

Arq. Bras. Cardiol.

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Dear Editor,We read with interest two manuscripts recently published in the Point-of-View session of this journal 1,2 , which discuss the importance of risk scores when indicating heart valve surgery.The scores most frequently used to quantify the risk of death in patients undergoing heart valve surgery in our country were developed in populations with different characteristics from that of our country, thus determining limitation of its use, and this has already been demonstrated. The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) is probably the most widely known score. However, it is not specific for heart valve surgery, because in the development of this score data from heart valve surgeries and from coronary artery bypass grafting were associated.We express our perplexity because our study published in this journal, and conducted in our Institution, has not been considered. We presented a score developed from a database of 1086 patients which exclusively underwent heart valve , obtaining a 0.78 ROC curve and a H-L test with p = 0.81. In our study, the overall death rate was 11.8%, and, in elective surgeries, 8.8%. Our score is unique, because it is the only one in our country capable to estimate the risk of death in patients undergoing isolated heart valve surgery. Currently, this score, along with another one developed in our institution for patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting 5 , is routinely used in our daily practice and applied along with EuroSCORE. In the near future, recalibration of the scores and comparative studies with the EuroSCORE will be possible to be done. KeywordsHeart valve surgery; risk scores.

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GuaragnaSCORE prediz satisfatoriamente os desfechos em cirurgia cardíaca valvar em hospital brasileiro

Cited by 6 publications

References 18 publications

EuroSCORE II and the importance of a local model, InsCor and the future SP-SCORE

EuroSCORE II and the importance of a local model, InsCor and the future SP-SCORE

Predictive performance of six mortality risk scores and the development of a novel model in a prospective cohort of patients undergoing valve surgery secondary to rheumatic fever

Escores de risco nas cirurgias cardíacas valvares

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