Structural transformation and labor productivity in Brazil

Costa, Daniela Ribeiro da; Marcolino, Marcos

doi:10.5935/0034-7140.20210020

Cited by 2 publications

(7 citation statements)

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“…4 The International Monetary Fund (2020) has made similar observations and proposals designed to reduce the federal government, states, and municipality's expectation of future bailouts, a report prepared before the COVID-19 pandemic. Costa and Marcolino (2021) present empirical findings showing that output per worker in Brazil has grown at a rate of 4.04% over the period 1950-1980 and only 0.16% in 1980-2010. See also Bacha and Bonelli (2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 84%

“…This national scenario represents a barely constant standard of living measured by output per worker over the last four decades. 3 The findings and conclusions reached by Bacha and Bonelli (2016) and Costa and Marcolino (2021) also reverberate in representative institutions, like World Bank (2022) andInternational Monetary Fund (2020). Poor institutions (e.g., poor law enforcement, corruption, and diversion) and high population growth rates can hinder catch-up growth in less developed countries (Hall and Lieberman, 2013;Hall and Jones, 1999).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…the COVID-19 pandemic. The documented decline in Brazil's fertility rate (United Nations, 2020;Doepke, 2004;Potter et al, 2002) coincides with about four decades of labor productivity growth stagnation overall (Costa and Marcolino, 2021;Bacha and Bonelli, 2016). This national scenario represents a barely constant standard of living measured by output per worker over the last four decades.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Does fertility affect growth? Evidence and simulation results from alternative quantile regression estimators

Marques

2023

Preprint

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While the effect of various factors on fertility choice has been intensively studied, few studies identify declining fertility's impact on subsequent growth. We employ instrumental variables derived from spatial interactions across 5564 cities to identify the heterogeneous effects of declining fertility on subsequent economic growth in Brazil's city-level data. The gain by reducing one birth may translate to a cumulative growth increase of 0.5 percentage points in places where the pace of economic development is low. On the median, the extent of the estimate suggests that a unity decrease in the total fertility rate might lead to an increase in cumulative growth of 0.25 percentage points in the following ten years. The simulation results, designed for two-stage quantile regression estimators, indicate the sample sizes for which the asymptotic properties tend to hold and show that the convolution-smoothed approach with the triangular kernel performs better in finite samples in most scenarios.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 84%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Does fertility affect growth? Evidence and simulation results from alternative quantile regression estimators

Marques

2023

Preprint

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“…Poverty and population growth in Brazil stagnation of output per worker since 1980 (Costa & Marcolino, 2021). Further, as the main driver for poverty reduction (Ferreira et al, 2007), the service sector has increased its labor share in output in the last decades.…”

Section: Poverty Responsementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Brazilian data show that labor productivity has stagnated in the last four decades of economic policy, preventing the Brazilian per capita income from getting closer to developed countries. In a recent contribution, Costa and Marcolino (2021) present empirical findings showing that output per worker in Brazil has grown at a rate of 4.04% over the period 1950-1980 and only 0.16% in 1980-2010. In the long run, the output per worker is the primary source of per capita income growth (Krugman, 1997). In turn, as this study documents, per capita income growth is still an important driver of poverty reduction in many circumstances and places (Krugman, 1997;World Bank, 2018, World Bank, 2020ILO, 2003) [2].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Poverty, population growth and agglomeration effects in all Brazil cities

M. Marques

2023

ECON

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PurposeThis paper aims to test three hypotheses in city growth literature documenting the poverty reduction observed in Brazil and exploring a rich spatial dataset for 5,564 Brazilian cities observed between 1991 and 2010. The large sample and the author's improved econometric methods allows one to better understand and measure how important income growth is for poverty reduction, the patterns of agglomeration and population growth in all Brazilian cities.Design/methodology/approachThe author identifies literature gaps and use a sizeable spatial dataset for 5,564 Brazilian cities observed in 1991, 2000 and 2010 applying instrumental variables methods. The bias-corrected accelerated bootstrap percentile interval supports the author's point estimates.FindingsThis manuscript finds that Brazilian data for cities does not support Gibrat's law, raising the scope for urban planning and associated policies. Second, economic growth on a sustainable basis is still a vital source of poverty reduction (The author estimates the poverty elasticity at four percentage points). Lastly, agglomeration effects positively affect the city's productivity, while negative externalities underlie the city's development patterns.Originality/valueData for cities in Brazil possess unique characteristics such as spatial autocorrelation and endogeneity. Applying proper methods to find more reliable answers to the above three questions is a desirable procedure that must be encouraged. As the author points out in the manuscript, dealing with endogenous regressors in regional economics is still a developing matter that regional scientists could more generally apply to many regional issues.

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Structural transformation and labor productivity in Brazil

Cited by 2 publications

References 0 publications

Does fertility affect growth? Evidence and simulation results from alternative quantile regression estimators

Does fertility affect growth? Evidence and simulation results from alternative quantile regression estimators

Poverty, population growth and agglomeration effects in all Brazil cities

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