Modelado espacial de incendios: una herramienta predictiva para el Bosque La Primavera, Jalisco México

Ibarra-Montoya, José Luis; Huerta-Martínez, Francisco Martín

doi:10.4136/ambi-agua.1536

Cited by 11 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 21 publications

(10 reference statements)

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“…It has been suggested that most of the fires occurring in central Mexico are caused by humans (Rodríguez-Trejo 2008;Carrillo et al, 2012;Castañeda Rojas et al, 2015;Ibarra-Montoya et al, 2016). Although this topic is beyond the scope of this study, widespread evidence of human-caused fires in the region (Carrillo et al, 2012;Castañeda Rojas et al, 2015;Ibarra-Montoya et al, 2016) suggests this is an anthropogenic fire-regime type, which is mainly related to agricultural activities.…”

Section: Drought-fire Spatio-temporal Associationsmentioning

confidence: 79%

Drought and Spatiotemporal Variability of Forest Fires Across Mexico

et al. 2018

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Understanding the spatiotemporal links between drought and forest fire occurrence is crucial for improving decision-making in fire management under current and future climatic conditions. We quantified forest fire activity in Mexico using georeferenced fire records for the period of 2005-2015 and examined its spatial and temporal relationships with a multiscalar drought index, the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). A total of 47 975 fire counts were recorded in the 11-year long study period, with the peak in fire frequency occurring in 2011. We identified four fire clusters, i.e., regions where there is a high density of fire records in Mexico using the Getis-Ord G spatial statistic. Then, we examined fire frequency data in the clustered regions and assessed how fire activity related to the SPEI for the entire study period and also for the year 2011. Associations between the SPEI and fire frequency varied across Mexico and fire-SPEI relationships also varied across the months of major fire occurrence and related SPEI temporal scales. In particular, in the two fire clusters located in northern Mexico (Chihuahua, northern Baja California), drier conditions over the previous 5 months triggered fire occurrence. In contrast, we did not observe a significant relationship between drought severity and fire frequency in the central Mexico cluster, which exhibited the highest fire frequency. We also found moderate fire-drought associations in the cluster situated in the tropical southern Chiapas where agriculture activities are the main causes of forest fire occurrence. These results are useful for improving our understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns of fire occurrence as related to drought severity in megadiverse countries hosting many forest types as Mexico.

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Section: Drought-fire Spatio-temporal Associationsmentioning

confidence: 79%

Drought and Spatiotemporal Variability of Forest Fires Across Mexico

et al. 2018

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“…O fenômeno La niña de intensidade moderada nos anos de 2007, 2008, 2011, 2017 e 2018 pode ter afetado a dinâmica dos focos de calor deste ano, devido ao acréscimo da precipitação, decréscimo das temperaturas e incremento da umidade relativa do ar (Tabela 1). MARTÍNEZ, 2016;KOUTSIAS et al, 2013;MARÍN et al, 2018;MARTÍNEZ-FERNÁNDEZ;CHUVIECO;KOUTSIAS, 2013).…”

Section: Discussionunclassified

Identificação espaço-temporal dos padrões de focos de calor no estado do maranhão

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et al. 2022

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O fogo no Brasil é associado a diversas etapas do setor agropecuário, sendo frequente o registro de incêndios e queimadas no país. Assim, o Maranhão, é um dos estados com maior ocorrência de focos de queimadas. O objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar a dinâmica espacial e temporal dos focos de calor no Maranhão. Os dados de focos de calor foram adquiridos no Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, enquanto os de pluviosidade com o sensor TRMM. Analisou-se os focos de calor anualmente, entre 2007 a 2019. Estes foram submetidos ao estimador de densidade Kernel no QGIS 2.18. Houve 325.940 focos no Maranhão entre 2007 a 2019, com maior incidência em 2007. A maior precipitação ocorreu entre janeiro e maio, o que coincide com a menor incidência dos focos de calor. Estes estão concentrados no centro maranhense, onde há menor precipitação. Os focos estavam entre 0-149 km de áreas de desmatamento, assentamentos, rodovias e aldeias indígenas. As áreas com maior concentração dos focos de queimadas estão localizadas no bioma cerrado, sendo a maior incidência no segundo semestre, o qual tem menor pluviosidade. Portanto, a incidência dos focos de calor é intrínseca à sazonalidade da precipitação e intensificada pela ação antrópica.

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“…The high FDI values observed in the S or C region for Agriculture and Pasture were not surprising, because these territories are characterized by frequent slash-andburn agricultural activities and clearing of forest for expansion of agriculture, which result in frequent fires (e.g., Rodríguez-Trejo and Fulé 2003;Román-Cuesta et al 2004;Román-Cuesta and Martínez 2006;Rodríguez-Trejo et al 2008;Rodríguez-Trejo et al 2011;Carrillo García et al 2012;Ibarra-Montoya and Huerta-Martínez 2016). These high ignition densities in the C region are consistent with those observed in previous studies of active fire density for the period 2011 to 2015 (Vega-Nieva et al 2018), as well as with the fire suppression registers spatial analysis from Pompa-García et al (2018) and Zúñiga-Vásquez et al (2017b) in Mexico.…”

Section: Observed Fdi Trends By Vegetation Types and Regionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal patterns of active fire density and its relationship with a satellite fuel greenness index by vegetation type and region in Mexico during 2003–2014

et al. 2019

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Background: Understanding the temporal patterns of fire occurrence and their relationships with fuel dryness is key to sound fire management, especially under increasing global warming. At present, no system for prediction of fire occurrence risk based on fuel dryness conditions is available in Mexico. As part of an ongoing national-scale project, we developed an operational fire risk mapping tool based on satellite and weather information. Results: We demonstrated how differing monthly temporal trends in a fuel greenness index, dead ratio (DR), and fire density (FDI) can be clearly differentiated by vegetation type and region for the whole country, using MODIS satellite observations for the period 2003 to 2014. We tested linear and non-linear models, including temporal autocorrelation terms, for prediction of FDI from DR for a total of 28 combinations of vegetation types and regions. In addition, we developed seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for forecasting DR values based on the last observed values. Most ARIMA models showed values of the adjusted coefficient of determination (R 2 adj) above 0.7 to 0.8, suggesting potential to forecast fuel dryness and fire occurrence risk conditions. The best fitted models explained more than 70% of the observed FDI variation in the relation between monthly DR and fire density. Conclusion: These results suggest that there is potential for the DR index to be incorporated in future fire risk operational tools. However, some vegetation types and regions show lower correlations between DR and observed fire density, suggesting that other variables, such as distance and timing of agricultural burn, deserve attention in future studies.

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Modelado espacial de incendios: una herramienta predictiva para el Bosque La Primavera, Jalisco México

Cited by 11 publications

References 21 publications

Drought and Spatiotemporal Variability of Forest Fires Across Mexico

Drought and Spatiotemporal Variability of Forest Fires Across Mexico

Identificação espaço-temporal dos padrões de focos de calor no estado do maranhão

Temporal patterns of active fire density and its relationship with a satellite fuel greenness index by vegetation type and region in Mexico during 2003–2014

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