Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis of Inundated Buildings Following a Subaqueous Volcanic Explosion Based on the 1716 Tsunami Scenario in Taal Lake, Philippines

Abstract

A probabilistic hazard analysis of a tsunami generated by a subaqueous volcanic explosion was performed for Taal Lake in the Philippines. The Taal volcano at Taal Lake is an active volcano on Luzon Island in the Philippines, and its eruption would potentially generate tsunamis in the lake. This study aimed to analyze a probabilistic tsunami hazard of inundated buildings for tsunami mitigation in future scenarios. To determine the probabilistic tsunami hazard, different explosion diameters were used to generate tsunamis of different magnitudes in the TUNAMI-N2 model. The initial water level in the tsunami model was estimated based on the explosion energy. The tsunami-induced inundation from the TUNAMI-N2 model was overlaid on the distribution of buildings. The tsunami hazard analysis of inundated buildings was performed by using the maximum inundation depth in each explosion case. These products were used to calculate the probability of the inundated building given the occurrence of a subaqueous explosion. The results from this study can be used for future tsunami mitigation if a tsunami is generated by a subaqueous volcanic explosion.

The near-field tsunami generated by the 15 January 2022 eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano and its impact on Tongatapu, Tonga

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w www.nature.com/scientificreports/ radially to form a leading wave, followed by a wave trough. The initial water surface displacement corresponds to the maximum height of the bore that can be empirically estimated by a function of explosion energy 12,[21][22][23][24] . The initial downward water displacement follows the upward displacement and forms a steep cone in the center of the bore 18 .

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“…The initial water level generated by the modified empirical model is input into the tsunami propagation model (TUNAMI model with Boussinesq-type equations) that was transformed into the geographical (spherical) coordinate system in this study, and the tsunami hazard characteristics, maximum water level, and arrival time around Tongatapu, Tonga, are obtained. The TUNAMI model has been extensively benchmarked and used in several tsunami case studies 24,[28][29][30] . The accuracy of the model is validated by using the observed waveform at the tide gauge because of the limited availability of field observation data.…”

Late Quaternary explosive phonolitic volcanism of Petite-Terre (Mayotte, Western Indian Ocean)

“…In the case of future phonolitic eruptions on Petite-Terre, explosive activity could trigger volcanogenic tsunamis during the initial stage of the eruption or even at later stages when the rapidly rising cones are destabilized even though no evidence was found on the eld. Explosive eruption-induced tsunami in shallow environments such as lakes (which can be considered as analogues to the lagoon in Mayotte) are documented at Taal (Pakoksung et al, 2021), Karimsky (Belousov et al, 2000) and in Nicaragua (Freundt et al, 2007). The entry of PDCs in the water can also be a source for tsunami generation, especially the diluted one (Paris, 2015b).…”

Study on earthquake and tsunami hazard: evaluating probabilistic seismic hazard function (PSHF) and potential tsunami height simulation in the coastal cities of Sumatra Island

“…This study used the Non-Linear Shallow Water Equation (NLSWE) of the TUNAMI-N3 model, which was initially developed by Tohoku University in Japan (Imamura et al, 2006), to simulate and predict the behavior of tsunamis accurately (Pakoksung et al, 2021). The TUNAMI-N3 is modified of the TUNAMI-N2 that is based on linear theory in deep sea, shallow- water theory in shallow sea, and runup on land with varying grids.…”