Combined analysis of landslide susceptibility and soil water dynamics in a metropolitan area, northeast Brazil

Abstract

Landslide susceptibility and water balance in the soil, in the community of Lagoa Encantada, Recife Metropolitan Area, Brazil, were assessed using the computational models SINMAP and HYDRUS-1D. The SINMAP input parameters were the physical and hydrodynamic characteristics of the soil, evidence of landslides and the DEM; and for the HYDRUS-1D model, the hydraulic parameters of the soil. For both programs, simulations were also carried out, based on the rain recorded in the area. The soil was classified using the Unified Soil Classification System (USCS). To assess infiltration processes that cause landslides, HYDRUS-1D was used, under the same scenarios simulated by the SINMAP model and also in the evaluation of the infiltrated volume, in real landslides. The SINMAP results (susceptibility maps) show a 71% increase in the susceptible area (SI < 1; SI = stability index) between the two precipitation scenarios, and are consistent with evidence of landslides. The HYDRUS-1D results complement SINMAP results and suggest that infiltration values for simulated scenarios were similar to those of real landslides. It is concluded that it is possible to map areas of greater instability and to predict possible landslides in different precipitation scenarios, by quantitatively assessing the infiltrated volume that contributes to the destabilization of the soil.