Quais são os efeitos do envelhecimento populacional nos sistemas previdenciários de Brasil, Espanha e França?

Amaro, Lucas Campos; Afonso, Luís Eduardo

doi:10.20947/s102-3098a0046

Rev. bras. estud. popul.

2018

DOI: 10.20947/s102-3098a0046

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Quais são os efeitos do envelhecimento populacional nos sistemas previdenciários de Brasil, Espanha e França?

Lucas Campos Amaro¹,

Luís Eduardo Afonso

Abstract: O objetivo do trabalho é analisar os impactos do envelhecimento populacional sobre os regimes previdenciários de repartição de três países: Brasil, Espanha e França. Os benefícios e as contribuições são calculados com base nas regras atuais e nas projeções populacionais por sexo e grupo etário, até 2100. De 2016 a 2100, o número de benefícios programáveis nos três países deverá aumentar 235%, 54% e 73%, respectivamente. Em 2050, ceteris paribus, o déficit brasileiro será de USD 188 bilhões, alcançando … Show more

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Cited by 2 publications

References 38 publications

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Mortality dynamics and the statutory retirement age proposal: an actuarial view

Souza

2020

Rev. contab. finanç.

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This paper aimed to apply (dynamic and static) actuarial models to calculate the balanced contribution rates for the planned (at the minimum age) retirement benefit of the General Social Security System, based on the original and substitutive texts of the reform proposed by Michel Temer’s government. Even with the regular increases in life expectancy and the long-term nature of the analyses, national studies on social security are typically based on the static mortality hypothesis. The relevance of this study is evident due to the demographic changes, particularly the increase in life expectancy, experienced by the Brazilian population in recent decades and which put in question the sustainability of the national pension system. The use of dynamic actuarial models allows for more accurate discussions about the future of social security, besides contributing to the still scarce national literature. Static and dynamic actuarial models were applied to a representative individual, adjusting mortality tables from the United Nations covering 1950 to 2100. It was verified that the actuarially fair rates calculated by the dynamic actuarial model are typically higher than those obtained by the static model, especially for women. This difference is expected to increase as gains in life expectancy become more influenced by the reduction in mortality at more advanced ages. Moreover, if the social security reform is approved (in accordance with either the original or the substitutive text), there are indications from the dynamic model that the contributions rates currently charged would be excessive for men. In turn, these rates would be excessive for women considering the original text, and closer to the actuarially fair value considering the substitutive text. The development, disclosure, and regular updating of official dynamic tables (whether for mortality or other biometric assumptions) are also recommended.

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Mortality dynamics and the statutory retirement age proposal: an actuarial view

Souza

2020

Rev. contab. finanç.

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Ineffectiveness of Law N° 30490 to guarantee the Fundamental Rights of Older Adults in a Peruvian Region

Cabrera Cabrera,

Tapia Vásquez,

Pérez Nájera

2023

espergesia

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The need to seek alternative solutions to the situation of abandoned, unprotected, invisibility in which older people are in vulnerable conditions was the primary motivation for developing this study, the purpose of which was to analyze the ineffectiveness in the application of Law No. 30490, which protects the fundamental rights of the elderly in Peru. The research is applied descriptive; the doctrinal legal method is used, with a mixed approach and a non-experimental cross-sectional design. Magistrates, specialists in Family Law, and authorities of public entities were taken as study units, applying a questionnaire. The observation was used as a technique; documentary analysis, articles, laws, and doctrines. The family is considered to be the main responsible for the violation of the rights of the older adult and the state itself with its entities, which must fulfill the purposes of public function, prioritizing and optimizing the resources they have, following the Law of the Framework for the Modernization of State Management. The main contribution of this research is that it concludes in a proposal, type bill, that seeks to modify article 25, Law No. 30490 of Title III, Chapter I, for a new definition of Older Adult Person, to achieve the timely identification and protection of this age group. Keywords: Demographic Aging; Older Adult Person; Vulnerability; Social Victimization.

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Quais são os efeitos do envelhecimento populacional nos sistemas previdenciários de Brasil, Espanha e França?

Cited by 2 publications

References 38 publications

Mortality dynamics and the statutory retirement age proposal: an actuarial view

Mortality dynamics and the statutory retirement age proposal: an actuarial view

Ineffectiveness of Law N° 30490 to guarantee the Fundamental Rights of Older Adults in a Peruvian Region

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