Argentina’s fertility regime (1980-2010): the end of the first demographic transition or an emergent second one?

Abstract

Argentina’s fertility transition has exceptional characteristics. Compared to most Latin American countries, Argentina’s fertility declined relatively early and, unlike fertility transitions in Western Europe, this decline did not lead to a high period of natural population growth. By the beginning of the twenty-first century, Argentina seemed to experience fertility stagnation despite women’s increased formal education and labor force participation, and increased availability of contraceptives. Using the 1980, 1991, 2001, and 2010 Population Censuses, I demonstrate that fertility has continued its downward trend from 1980 to 2010. Changes in fertility behaviors are given by a decrease in the mean number of children per woman, but not by an increase in childlessness. However, there is evidence of postponement of childbearing. Results show that although Argentina is completing its first demographic transition, as it has not reached below-replacement fertility yet, this country could show signs of an emerging second demographic transition.