IThere is a clear decline in caries experienced by the world population in recent decades. The dissemination of fluoride use, combined with the public health politics that facilitate the population's access to oral health services, has been identified as the main causes of the current pattern of caries development in Brazil. However, other variables may be involved in decay of caries. The objective of this study was to identify individual and contextual variables associated with caries prevalence in 12,614 individuals allocated to the 12-year age group and to the 15 to 19 age group, examined in the last epidemiological survey of oral health in Brazil-SB Brasil 2010. The variables evaluated were: "age group", "dental caries", "family income", "educational level", "frequency of use of dental services" and "self-perception and impact of oral health status". The contextual variables analyzed were: 'Child Benefit', National Health System Development Index (IDSUS), 'Human Development Index (HDI)' and 'presence/absence of fluoridated water treated water' were collected from data secondary databases in the public and inter-institutional database of the Department of Primary Health Care of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. The results showed that the self-perception of the need for dental treatment, as well as the report of tooth pain, is variables directly related to the predisposition of caries development in this population. The value of the IDSUS greater than 5.76 and the presence of fluoridated water in the municipalities were considered as protective factors against caries. It was concluded that, in addition to the policies for fluoridation of treated water and access to oral health services in SUS, adequate planning of oral health actions should address issues according to the local population.