The equity premium puzzle: analysis in Brazil after the real plan

Abstract

Our paper investigates whether there is evidence of an Equity Premium Puzzle (EPP) in Brazil, applying two different methodologies. The EPP was identified by Mehra and Prescott (1985) since the Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM), when calibrated with reasonable preference parameters, could not explain high historical average risk premiums in the United States. In our first approach, we consider Mehra's (2003) model and calibrate the coefficient of risk aversion, using 1995:2-2012:1 quarterly data. The Ibovespa index was used as a measure of the market return, whereas the risk-free rate was proxied by the Selic interbank rate and by the savings account rate. In our second approach, we propose a new method to test the puzzle. We jointly estimate, via generalized method of moments, the parameters of interest using a moment condition that has not been previously explored, as far as we are aware of. The two approaches produced a high risk aversion coefficient, however the second approach indicated that we cannot reject the hypothesis of the risk aversion coefficient being statistically equal to zero. A possible explanation for this result might be that in Brazil the equity premium is not statistically different from zero. Therefore there is no evidence of EPP in Brazil for the studied period.