Assessment of invasive potential of Homalodisca coagulata in western North America and south America

Abstract

The potential of Homalodisca coagulata to invade South America is a question of economic importance, given its potential impact as a disease vector for several crops. We developed ecological niche models for the species on its native geographic distribution in the southeastern United States; we tested the predictivity of the models both on the native distributional area and via projections to California, where the species has long been present as an invasive species. In both cases, tests indicated high statistical significance of predictions. Projection of models to South America indicated little possibility of invasion of southeastern Brazil, where citrus diseases were of concern. However, all models agree in predicting great risk of establishment in the wine-growing regions of northern Argentina and extreme southern Brazil; great precaution is thus to be recommended when any movements of bio-materials are made from infected areas to this region. ResumoA possibilidade de invasão da América do Sul por Homalodisca coagulata é uma questão de relevância econômica, dado o potencial de seu impacto como um vetor para agentes fitopatológicos. Foram desenvolvidos modelos de nicho ecológico para a espécie na sua área de distribuição geográfica nativa, no sudeste dos Estados Unidos. A capacidade de previsão dos modelos foi testada tanto na área de distribuição nativa quanto em projeções no estado da Califórnia, onde a espécie tem estado presente por muito tempo como uma espécie invasora. Em ambos os casos, os testes indicaram alta significância estatística para as previsões. Projeções dos mesmos modelos para a América do Sul indicaram poucas chances de invasão ao sudeste do Brasil, local em que doenças em culturas de cítricos são preocupantes. Entretanto, todos os modelos são concordantes ao prever alto risco de estabelecimento da espécie na região onde se encontram as vinícolas do norte da Argentina e no extremo sul do Brasil. Recomenda-se então grande precaução no transporte de material biológico de áreas infectadas para a área em questão. Palavras-chave: modelagem de nicho ecológico, espécies invasoras, Xylella fastidiosa, vetor.Biota Neotropica v3 (n1) -http://www.biotaneotropica.org.br/v3n1/pt/abstract?article+BN00703012003

Modeling current and future potential wintering distributions of eastern North American monarch butterflies

“…The approach has also been criticized under the reasoning that shifting interspecific interactions are likely to influence potential distributions much more than species' autecology (49). However, across numerous spatial scales, niche models do predict current geographic distributions (31,37,38,40,41,50,51); ecological niches have been shown to be conserved over significant periods of evolutionary time (38,48,52); and models show excellent predictivity even when transplanted to other regions and completely different community contexts (39,(53)(54)(55)(56)(57). In addition, both empirical evidence (8-10, 12, 13) and our modeling point to the importance of two key environmental features, temperature and precipitation.…”

Uses and Requirements of Ecological Niche Models and Related Distributional Models

“…Finally, additional evidence comes from studies of invasive species, in which species are transplanted to a distinct geographic and community context. Although it has been suggested based on theoretical musing and limited laboratory experiments that shifting species' interactions would confound any possible predictivity (in this case in the context of anticipating climate change effects on species' distributions) (Davis et al 1998), numerous studies have successfully predicted the invasive distributional potential of species based on native-range ecological characteristics (Beerling et al 1995;Higgins et al 1999;Honig et al 1992;Iguchi et al 2004;Panetta and Dodd 1987;Papes and Peterson 2003;Peterson 2003a;Peterson et al 2003a;Peterson and Robins 2003;Peterson et al 2003b;Peterson and Vieglais 2001;Richardson and McMahon 1992;Scott and Panetta 1993;Skov 2000;Sutherst et al 1999;Zalba et al 2000).…”

“…Here, the idea is that-given apparently widespread evolutionary conservatism in ecological niche characteristics-species will often 'obey' the same set of ecological rules on invaded distributional areas as they do on their native distributional areas. As such, the geographic potential of invasive species is often quite predictable, based on their geographic and ecological distributions on their native distributional areas (Beerling et al 1995;Higgins et al 1999;Hinojosa-Díaz et al 2005;Hoffmann 2001;Honig et al 1992;Iguchi et al 2004;Panetta and Dodd 1987;Papes and Peterson 2003;Peterson 2003a;Peterson et al 2003a;Peterson and Robins 2003;Peterson et al 2003b;Peterson and Vieglais 2001;Podger et al 1990;Richardson and McMahon 1992;Robertson et al 2004;Sindel and Michael 1992;Skov 2000;Sutherst et al 1999;Welk et al 2002;Zalba et al 2000), although the factors that make a species invasive are clearly more complex than just niche considerations ).…”

Predicting the potential distribution of the alien invasive American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus) in Brazil

“…Ecological niche modeling has also been applyed to the prediction of the invasive potential of non-native species (Peterson and Vieglais 2001;Peterson et al 2003;Papes and Peterson 2003;Ficetola et al 2007). …”