Understanding the factors influencing variation in the diversity and structure of rich biological communities (e.g., Neotropical upland forests) is essential in the context of climate change. In this study, we examine how environmental filters (temperature, precipitation, and elevation) and distinct habitats (moist upland forests - MUF and dry upland forests - DHF) influence the phylogenetic diversity and structure of 54 tree communities (28 MHF and 26 DHF). We used the standardized effect size (ses) of the metrics phylogenetic diversity (ses.PD), mean pairwise distance (ses.MPD), and mean nearest neighbor distance (ses.MNTD) to quantify changes in tree community diversity and structure. Then, we assessed the relationships of the phylogenetic metrics with the environmental filters as predictors using generalized linear models (GLMs). Our results indicate that increasing temperature negatively affects the phylogenetic indices analyzed, leading to less diverse and more clustered communities. In contrast, increasing precipitation and elevation showed a significant positive relationship with the analyzed indices, directing communities towards greater phylogenetic diversity and random or overdispersed structure. Our findings also reveal that phylogenetic diversity and structure vary with habitat type. For example, while MUFs exhibit higher phylogenetic diversity and random structure, DUFs display lower phylogenetic diversity and clustered structure. In conclusion, our results suggest that the phylogenetic patterns exhibited by upland communities in the semiarid region are strongly related to climatic conditions and the habitat in which they are found. Therefore, if the predicted temperature increases and precipitation decreases in climate change scenarios for the semi-arid region materialize, these communities may face significant biodiversity loss.
