"Grow and multiply": social development, birth rates and demographic transition in the Municipality of São Paulo, Brazil, time-series for 1901-94

Abstract

This study reports the construction of time-series related to standardized mortality rate, proportional mortality ratio of Swaroop and Uemura, infant mortality rate, fetal death rate, expectation of life at birth and birth rate for the city of São Paulo, SP, Brazil, from 1901 to 1994. In order to determine the structural variation of these measures, the model, forecast and correlation of these series were submitted to statistical analysis. The results obtained were compared to the historical analysis of the major socioe-conomic phenomena during this period in an effort to explain populational movements in the city, with emphasis on the slow and late nature of the process of demographic transition in the city. It was concluded that time-series analysis for demographic measures is efficient in many ways: by allowing the application of statistical methodology to the human sciences, by passing the difficulties inherent in the characteristics of these values (serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, multicollinearity and non-normality of forecast error distribution), by integrating quantitative analysis with the historical interpretation of the phenomena approached, by projecting estimates of future trends on the basis of the behavior of the variables analyzed, and by systematizing the methodology for application in future studies of social research.

Tuberculosis in the twentieth century: time-series mortality in São Paulo, Brazil, 1900-97

“…Thus, the migratory process was peculiarly heterogeneous, with more affluent population contingents being replaced by less privileged ones, since arriving immigrants needed financial backing for the trip, while those who returned home did so at their own expense. This had a 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 1930 1920 1910 1900 definite impact on the persistently high mortality rates throughout the first half of the century (Antunes, 1998).…”

“…This phenomenon resulted from the introduction of preventive and therapeutic measures, the creation of health services focused specifically on the disease, and social improvements and other factors related to the demographic and epidemiological transition in the city, which also had repercussions on overall changes in health and social development indicators (Antunes, 1998).…”

A mortalidade por doenças infecciosas no início e no final do século XX no Município de São Paulo

“…Segundo Antunes (1998), a transição demográfica neste município ocorreu apenas a partir da metade do século passadoportanto mais tarde e de forma mais lenta do que nas cidades européias ou norte americanas, apesar das importantes mudanças ocorridas na cidade de São Paulo no início do século XX, como resultado da industrialização e da urbanização 6 . Nas primeiras décadas de 1900, cerca de 50% dos óbitos tinham como causa as doenças infecciosas, com cerca de metade deles atribuídos às diarréias, enquanto a tuberculose era responsável por algo em torno de 10% das mortes.…”

“…Este fato repercutiu na estrutura demográfica do município, contribuindo para o aumento da esperança de vida e, portanto, com a tendência de envelhecimento da população 6 . Fatores socioeconômicos são apontados na literatura como determinantes da queda da mortalidade infantil.…”

Mortalidade por câncer e desigualdade social em São Paulo.

“…Em recente revisão da extensa literatura internacional sobre o tema, KEY et al (2002) apontaram os tipos de câncer cuja manifestação tem sido associada à obesidade (mama feminina, endométrio e rins), a fatores nutricionais de risco (cavidade bucal, faringe, esôfago, estômago, cólon e reto, fígado e laringe) e a fatores nutricionais de proteção (cavidade bucal, faringe, esôfago, estômago, cólon e reto e pulmão). Também no Brasil, diversos estudos têm se detido na associação entre alimentação e risco para câncer (CARDOSO et al, 2002;FRANCO et al, 1989;MARCHIONI et al, 2002;MENDONÇA, 1996;ANTUNES;TAVARES, 2004).…”