Um estudo sobre os impactos da surpresa da política monetária na atividade econômica brasileira

Abstract

Este trabalho estuda os impactos da política monetária nas variáveis reais da economia brasileira. Será testado o efeito de movimentos não-esperados da política monetária sobre a atividade econômica e o desemprego com base nos modelos Neoclássicos e Novo-Keynesianos, cuja importância para o comportamento das variáveis reais é a parte não-esperada da política monetária. Como medida de surpresa da política monetária, será utilizado o erro de previsão do mercado para a taxa de juros estabelecida pela autoridade monetária.<br>This work studies the impacts of the monetary policy in the real variables of the Brazilian economy. It will be tested the unanticipated movements of the monetary policy in the economic activity and unemployment according whit the Neoclassical and new Keynesians models, which the importance the real variables is the unanticipated component of the monetary policy. As measure of surprise it will be used the error forecast for the interest rate established by the monetary authority

Impacts of the Monetary Policy Committee decisions on the foreign exchange rate in Brazil

“…To do so, we considered the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) spot net interventions (US$ million) in the FX market, 14 as well as public offerings of foreign exchange swap contracts, as measured by the number of buy/sell swap contracts supplied by the BCB and announced on a given communiqué day. 15 In respect to interest rate surprises in Brazil, Vieira and Gonçalves (2008) investigate the difference between swaps rates (1 and 12 months), before and after each Copom meeting.…”

Monetary policy in Brazil: Evidence from new measures of monetary shocks

“…In terms of content, this paper is related to Vieira and Gonçalves (2008), who analyzed the consequences of monetary policy surprises on economic activity measures, finding a larger effect for the unexpected component of monetary policy. This paper substantially expands the analysis of Viera and Gonçalves (2008), 3 not only with the inclusion of new measures of monetary policy shocks, which have not been done previously but also regarding the methodology.…”