Investimento privado: uma análise empírica para o Brasil

Abstract

O presente estudo identifica os determinantes do investimento privado no Brasil para o período compreendido entre 1970 e 2005. O artigo apresenta as principais teorias de investimento, os desenvolvimentos recentes e as principais aplicações para os dados brasileiros. Os resultados indicam que aumentos na renda e na atividade econômica influenciam positivamente o investimento do setor privado no Brasil. A redução no volume de crédito e a existência de instabilidades políticas e econômicas mostraram-se prejudiciais ao investimento privado no período analisado. A implementação de políticas públicas que possam garantir a estabilidade econômica e a credibilidade dos agentes, assim como aumentos na oferta de crédito, podem elevar o nível de investimento privado no Brasil.

Do foreign portfolio capital flows affect domestic investment? Evidence from Brazil

“…We find that real interest rate, a proxy for the real rental price of capital, does not significantly affect changes in the investment levels. This evidence is consistent with other studies evaluating the aggregate investment in Brazil (e.g., Luporini & Alves, 2016) and suggests that investment responses to past movements in real interest rates are close to zero. Our model also rejects any effects of the supply of credit and exchange rate variations on investment, but we find that investment is affected by past movements of EFPI-GDP (+) and L2.ΔCOMM (+) and also contemporaneously by RECESSION (−).…”

Developmentalism and the determinants of investment: an econometric exercise for Brazil in the 2000s

“…Our estimates use monthly data from July 1999 to December 2013, totalizing 174 observations. The dependent variable (investment) is represented by the apparent consumption of capital goods, following Dos Santos et al (2016, 16 See Dos Santos et al (2016), Luporini and Alves (2010) and Dos Santos and Pires (2007;2009) who also use this variable in their estimations. 17 "Furthermore, applying Kalecki»s (1937) «principle of increasing risk», changes in the rate of interest have an impact on retained profits and thus on the willingness and the ability of firms to invest in capital stock."…”

“…See also Hein (2014, Chapter 6),Bertella (2007) andBlecker (2002) for more information on the differences between neo-Kaleckian and post-Kaleckian investment function. 14 This reasoning, that implies that a competitive exchange rate would also increase the profit share of non-commodity producers» firms, shows the importance of the profit share in the investment function due to its link to the exchange rate.15 SeeDos Santos et al (2016), Feijo et al (2016 andLuporini and Alves (2010), who also use the real exchange rate in their investment functions.…”

Determinants of Private Credit in OECD Developed, BRIC's and LAC Countries

“…Literature (Keynes (1936 and1971;Luporini and Alves, 2007) also mentions that the level of public investment directed to infrastructure improvements and services can generate positive externalities for private investment, in addition to expanding the demand for inputs and services from the private sector which would favor economic growth that would, in turn, favor the availability of credit. If Gross Fixed Capital Formation has positive relationship with credit availability it is an indication that their higher levels are associated with increased availability of resources.…”