Verificación de los pronosticos del modelo BRAMS centrado en la region subtropical de Sudamerica

Skabar, Yanina García; Salio, Paola; Nicolini, Matilde

doi:10.1590/s0102-77862012000300004

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…The equitable threat score (not shown) ranges from 0.15 to 0.4 in the LPB for days 1-7. These values compare favorably with other model evaluations for the same region, which yielded similar scores but in shorter lead times (García Skabar et al 2012;Dillon et al 2013). The evolution with forecast lead time of the skill scores averaged for the 80 stations within the LPB is presented in Fig.…”

Section: B Resultssupporting

confidence: 76%

“…Highresolution versions of the BRAMS and WRF Model are also used at the weather services on an experimental basis. García Skabar et al (2011) and Dillon et al (2013) report that the WRF shows greater skill, although both models tend to underestimate the average precipitation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Other short-term forecasts are systematically performed at academic institutions serving the needs of the local community. As with the models run in operational environments, these simulations present systematic errors like the overestimation of the frequency of low-intensity precipitation events and the underestimation of heavy rainfall events (see, .e.g., Saulo et al 2008;García Skabar et al 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluation of WRF Model Forecasts and Their Use for Hydroclimate Monitoring over Southern South America

Müller

Lovino

Berbery

2016

Weather and Forecasting

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Weather forecasting and monitoring systems based on regional models are becoming increasingly relevant for decision support in agriculture and water management. This work evaluates the predictive and monitoring capabilities of a system based on WRF Model simulations at 15-km grid spacing over the La Plata basin (LPB) in southern South America, where agriculture and water resources are essential. The model's skill up to a lead time of 7 days is evaluated with daily precipitation and 2-m temperature in situ observations for the 2-yr period from 1 August 2012 to 31 July 2014. Results show high prediction performance with 7-day lead time throughout the domain and particularly over LPB, where about 70% of rain and no-rain days are correctly predicted. Also, the probability of detection of rain days is above 80% in humid regions. Temperature observations and forecasts are highly correlated (r . 0.80) while mean absolute errors, even at the maximum lead time, remain below 2.78C for minimum and mean temperatures and below 3.78C for maximum temperatures. The usefulness of WRF products for hydroclimate monitoring was tested for an unprecedented drought in southern Brazil and for a slightly above normal precipitation season in northeastern Argentina. In both cases the model products reproduce the observed precipitation conditions with consistent impacts on soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and runoff. This evaluation validates the model's usefulness for forecasting weather up to 1 week in advance and for monitoring climate conditions in real time. The scores suggest that the forecast lead time can be extended into a second week, while bias correction methods can reduce some of the systematic errors.Corresponding author address: Omar V.

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Section: B Resultssupporting

confidence: 76%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluation of WRF Model Forecasts and Their Use for Hydroclimate Monitoring over Southern South America

Müller

Lovino

Berbery

2016

Weather and Forecasting

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Multi-temporal flood mapping and satellite altimetry used to evaluate the flood dynamics of the Bolivian Amazon wetlands

Ovando

Martinez

Tomasella

et al. 2018

International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinfor

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Uso del modelo “Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System” (brams) en el análisis del huaico de Chosica en Lima Perú

Villanueva

sánchez

2017

An. cient. U.N.A.

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ResumenEn la actualidad existen modelos numéricos que permiten disponer de informaciones para las investigaciones y análisis en lugares con escasez de datos meteorológicos observados. El modelo regional BRAMS cuenta con datos de pronóstico, procedentes del modelo global del CPTEC, que deberían usarse para el proceso de downscaling dinámico cuyos resultados son útiles en el análisis de las condiciones del tiempo pronosticado en zonas de eventos climáticos de alto riesgo para prevenir sus efectos negativos y aprovechar la capacidad de predicción del modelo. En este trabajo se usó el modelo BRAMS para determinar el origen de las precipitaciones que ocasionaron el huaico en Chosica en marzo del 2015. Se determinó la distribución altitudinal de precipitación pronosticada con cinco días de anticipación y con precipitaciones observadas; también se analizaron los vientos en superficie y altura para identificar los flujos asociados (los sistemas del Pacífico o los sistemas del Este) con las precipitaciones; asimismo se analizaron la estabilidad e inestabilidad atmosférica mediante la comparación del gradiente vertical de temperatura con la adiabática seca, y la inestabilidad potencial en proceso de levantamientos de capas, analizándose la distribución vertical de la temperatura potencial equivalente. La distribución altitudinal de las precipitaciones pronosticadas indicaron comportamiento de aumento hasta una altitud aproximada de 1500m y de disminución por encima de esta altitud, los datos observados confirmaron el mismo comportamiento de variación altitudinal para el día 23 de marzo; los análisis del viento indicaron presencia de sistemas del Pacífico (flujos de barlovento) hasta aproximadamente 2500 m de altitud; los gradientes térmicos verticales mostraron atmósfera ligeramente estable en la zona de estudio; sin embargo la distribución vertical de la temperatura potencial equivalente mostró atmósfera potencialmente inestable sobre localidades asociados con aumento altitudinal de la precipitación. En consecuencia la presencia de sistemas del Pacífico o flujos de barlovento, la topografía y la inestabilidad potencial de la atmósfera constituyeron los forzantes de las precipitaciones ocurridas. Palabras clave: Precipitación; pronóstico de precipitación; BRAMS; huaicos; Chosica. AbstractAt present there are numerical models to provide information which favors the analysis and research in areas without meteorological observed data. The BRAMS regional model has forecast data from the global CPTEC model that should be used for the dynamic downscaling process whose results are useful in the analysis of predicted weather conditions in high-risk climatic event areas in order to prevent the negative effects and to use the predictive capacity of the model. This work was done using the BRAMS model to determine the origin of rainfall that caused the mudslides in Chosica in March 2015. For that purpose the altitudinal histograms distribution of forecasted precipitation data with five days in advance and observed data at meteorologi...

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Verificación de los pronosticos del modelo BRAMS centrado en la region subtropical de Sudamerica

Cited by 3 publications

References 26 publications

Evaluation of WRF Model Forecasts and Their Use for Hydroclimate Monitoring over Southern South America

Evaluation of WRF Model Forecasts and Their Use for Hydroclimate Monitoring over Southern South America

Multi-temporal flood mapping and satellite altimetry used to evaluate the flood dynamics of the Bolivian Amazon wetlands

Uso del modelo “Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System” (brams) en el análisis del huaico de Chosica en Lima Perú

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