Repensando o presidencialismo: contestações e quedas de presidentes na América do Sul

Abstract

Desde que os países sul-americanos retornaram ao governo civil nos anos 1970 e 1980, 23% de seus presidentes eleitos têm sido forçados a deixar o cargo antes do final de seus mandatos. Esse espantoso índice de quedas presidenciais prematuras tem recebido pouca atenção sistemática, embora devesse ser um elemento crítico nos debates acerca da qualidade da democracia e da possível instabilidade nos sistemas presidenciais. Este artigo enfoca os desafios: como e por que os sul-americanos exigem que os presidentes deixem o cargo antes do fim do mandato? Desde 1978, os desa-* Publicado como "Rethinking presidentialism: challenges and presidential falls in South America". Comparative Politics, jul. 2006, pp. 401-418. Esta tradução em português é publicada com a permissão dos detentores dos direitos autorais, a quem agradecemos. Tradução de Valerie Rumjanek Chaves, a quem também agradecemos. ** Gostaria de agradecer a Javier Auyero, Elisabeth Jay Friedman, Dawn King, Steven Levitsky, Fiona Macaulay, Vicky Murillo, David Samuels, Kurt Weyland e a diversos revisores anônimos por seus comentários e suas sugestões úteis. Agradeço muito a Kyle Saunders por sua ajuda com a análise estatística e sua interpretação. Os bibliotecários do Centro de América Latina, da Universidade de Oxford, foram muito solícitos ao facilitarem minha necessidade de ler centenas de exemplares do Latin American Weekly Report.

Impeachment, Political Crisis and Democracy in Brazil

“…Looking over the long series of presidencies that have been interrupted since the 1980s in Latin America, the literature highlights the process of interaction between at least four variables: economic crises, corruption scandals involving the president and his or her party, broad and systematic protests, and the loss of a legislative majority by the executive (Negretto 2006;Hochstetler 2007;Marsteintredet 2008;Pérez-Liñan 2008). Analyzed as a whole, the succession of events calls into question the assertion that in presidential democracies, there is no political way to end an executive term early, pointing to resignations, legislative coups, or the occurrence of political judgments as outlets for the crises.…”

“…First, protesters took to the streets. According to Hochstetler (2007) and Pérez-Liñán (2007, street demonstrations may be considered the most important variable in the interruption of presidential tenures in Latin America. In the Brazilian case, 3 When making a plea bargain, the accused must identify accomplices and people who benefited from the crimes investigated and return the money lost.…”

The Deposition of Paraguayan President Fernando Lugo and its repercussions in South American regional organizations

“…However, the events mentioned in the indictment must be understood as particular manifestations of the more general picture of political and institutional instability and military interference in politics that has marked Paraguay's democratic regime since the end of the long Stroessner dictatorship. While the literature we will now discuss addresses the recent reemergence of presidential downfalls in Latin America, now characterized by the survival of democratic regimes and without direct Hochstetler (2007) notes that the most contested presidencies are those characterized by the adoption of neoliberal policies, those in which presidents are personally implicated in corruption scandals, and those where presidents do not hold a parliamentary majority. Secondly, she argues that the reemergence of interruptions to presidential terms in the region exposes a phenomenon that runs counter to the dominant assumptions of presidentialism: "that presidential mandates are strictly set, that the population can neither withdraw nor guarantee these mandates, and that political conflict under presidentialism leads to the collapse of democracy" (HOCHSTETLER, 2007, p. 199; translated by the authors).…”

“…Although there are several good studies on the causes and/or implications of presidential crises and interruptions of mandates in Latin America (HOCHSTETLER, 2007;LLANOS and INÁCIO, 2015;MARSTEINTREDET, 2008;PÉREZ-LIÑÁN, 2007, 2014VALENZUELA, 2004), there remains a lack of studies that address the regional repercussions of presidential crises in South America. The present study seeks to fill this gap by analyzing the reactions of the intergovernmental (CMC), parliamentary presidentialism: the occurrence of presidential ousters (interruptions of electoral mandates), but accompanied by the survival of the political regime, that is to say, without the reemergence of authoritarian or dictatorial regimes (PÉREZ-LIÑÁN, 2007, 2014.…”

Inestabilidad política y caídas presidenciales en Sudamérica: causas y consecuencias

“…Argumentando en la misma dirección de Mirza (2006), pero ampliando la discusión hacia el concepto de estabilidad presidencial, Hochstetler (2007) afirma que la presencia o ausencia de protestas populares en las calles constituye un fenómeno esencial para la salida de los presidentes en Sudamérica. Según la autora: todas las movilizaciones exitosas de caídas presidenciales incluyeron participaciones de la sociedad civil que exigían en las calles la salida de los presidentes (Hochstetler, 2007: 16).…”