Long-term planning of a container terminal under demand uncertainty and economies of scale

Novaes, Antônio Galvão; Scholz‐Reiter, Bernd; Silva, Vanina M. Durski; Rosa, Hobed

doi:10.1590/s0101-74382012005000009

Cited by 21 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Eskafi et al (2019) pointed out that demand is temporally and spatially affected by salient stakeholders during the projected lifetime of a port. Furthermore, demand levels are volatile over time (Novaes et al 2012), and the assumption of system stability leads to uncertain and inaccurate forecasts (Flyvbjerg et al 2003). In testimony of volatile circumstances, the current outbreak of COVID-19 has created uncertainty in cargo flows, signaling increasing challenges in decision-making in port development projects (Notteboom and Haralambides 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A model for port throughput forecasting using Bayesian estimation

et al. 2021

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Capacity plays a crucial role in a port's competitive position and the growth of its market share. An investment decision to provide new port capacity should be supported by a growing demand for port services. However, port demand is volatile and uncertain in an increasingly competitive market environment. Also, forecasting models themselves are associated with epistemic uncertainty due to model and parameter uncertainties. This paper applies a Bayesian statistical method to forecast the annual throughput of the multipurpose Port of Isafjordur in Iceland. Model uncertainties are thus taken into account, while parameter uncertainties are handled by selecting influencing macroeconomic variables based on mutual information analysis. The presented model has an adaptive capability as new information becomes available. Our method results in a range of port throughput forecasts, in addition to a point estimate, and it also accounts for epistemic uncertainty, thus increasing the reliability of forecasts. Our results provide support for informed decision-making in capacity planning and management. Our forecasts show a constant linear growth of containerized throughput the period 2020-2025. Noncontainerized throughput declines rapidly over the same period.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, demand levels are volatile over time (Novaes et al. 2012 ), and the assumption of system stability leads to uncertain and inaccurate forecasts (Flyvbjerg et al. 2003 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A model for port throughput forecasting using Bayesian estimation

et al. 2021

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“…Eskafi et al (2019a) pointed out that demand is temporally and spatially affected by salient stakeholders during the projected lifetime of a port. Furthermore, demand levels are volatile over time (Novaes et al 2012) and the assumption of system stability leads to uncertain and inaccurate forecasts (Flyvbjerg, Bruzelius, and Rothengatter 2003). In testimony of volatile circumstances, the current outbreak of COVID-19 has created uncertainty in cargo flows, signaling increasing challenges in decision making in port development projects (Notteboom and Haralambides 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Framework for Dealing with Uncertainty in the Port Planning Process

Eskafi

Dastgheib

Taneja

et al. 2021

J. Waterway, Port, Coastal, Ocean Eng.

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Ports have always been evolving to satisfy the new or changing demands of stakeholders. In this unstable world, ports as dynamic systems are developed under a high degree of uncertainty. Furthermore, black-swan events, for instance, the financial crisis in 2008, the avalanche in Flateyri (Iceland) in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021 make successful port planning a challenging task. Indeed, the ever-increasing complexity of a port system and its long technical lifetime make uncertainty considerations inevitable in the planning process. Therefore, this research presents a structured framework to deal with uncertainties, including opportunities and vulnerabilities, in the port planning process. To this end, a structured stakeholder analysis is performed to effectively and timely engage stakeholders in the planning process. Fuzzy logic 3-dimensional decision surface is used to identify the salient stakeholders. Subsequently, the success of the future port is defined in terms of the specific objectives of the stakeholders. To develop this definition, a problem structuring method and fuzzy multi-attribute group decision-making method are synthesized. Then, a port throughput forecast is conducted that accounts for epistemic uncertainty, including model and parameters uncertainties, and thus increases the reliability of forecast results. The method identifies the influencing macroeconomic variables on port throughput by mutual information and then applies the Bayesian statistical method to forecast the port throughput. Effective actions are planned to seize opportunities and manage vulnerabilities that manifest in the projected lifetime. Therefore, the port can adapt or better withstand the vagaries of the future. The nonlinearity of dealing with uncertainty by application of the framework provides a robust and better plan toward its success. The framework supports decision making under uncertainty and facilitates adaptive port planning. The framework is applied to the Ports of Isafjordur Network in Iceland. The results indicate that the uncertainties mainly present opportunities in the short-time horizon, while in the middle-time horizon the port network is confronted with multiple vulnerabilities.

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“…Ho and Ho [7] exposed the risk of high investment in the port infrastructure and discussed how to manage different developing scenarios to minimise business risks. Koh [8] exposed the need for optimum container port capacity development, where investments must be in correlation with the near future container traffic movements, and Novaes et al [9] highlighted the problem of berth capacity expansion and demand volatility. Management must find an approach to plan and install excess capacity, with an orientation towards a limited time of overcapacity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Developing Higher Berth Productivity: Comparison of Eastern Adriatic Container Terminals

Beškovnik

Twrdy

Bauk

2019

PROMET

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This paper analyses changes of berth infrastructure and suprastructure by global container terminals (CTs) and by four eastern Adriatic ports in the last decade. The emphasis is on understanding whether CTs at Koper, Trieste, Rijeka and Bar achieved higher berth utilisation and productivity per ship-to-shore (STS) crane and if so, how and whether their development is in line with the global trend in CT berth productivity. On this basis a comparison model of twenty selected global CTs is used for productivity comparison as a first step in the process of analysing subsystem productivity. The study shows that four eastern Adriatic ports made different decisions, but with the same goals in reaction to the increased flow of containers via the Adriatic Sea transport route. Their main goal was to increase berth productivity by controlling the eventual subsystem overcapacity. According to observations, the Port of Koper is running at the subsystem’s upper level, while CTs in Trieste, Rijeka and Bar operate with certain degree of berth infrastructural, and suprastructural overcapacity.

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Long-term planning of a container terminal under demand uncertainty and economies of scale

Cited by 21 publications

References 25 publications

A model for port throughput forecasting using Bayesian estimation

A model for port throughput forecasting using Bayesian estimation

Framework for Dealing with Uncertainty in the Port Planning Process

Developing Higher Berth Productivity: Comparison of Eastern Adriatic Container Terminals

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